Towards Financial Freedom

DBSV S'pore Wired Daily 9 November 2012

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Publish date: Fri, 09 Nov 2012, 03:04 PM

Today's Focus
Noble Group - Soft results is an opportunity to BUY; TP: S$1.50

US markets fell for a second session on concerns about how the fiscal cliff will be tackled. Eurozone concerns also crept back. The STI should start the session lower on Wall Street weakness. The 3000 could be temporarily broken downside but a minor rebound is seen from the immediate support at 2985. The near-term trend is likely to remain choppy.

Attention this morning turns to the release of China's Oct CPI, PPI, industrial production, FAI and retail sales. According to Bloomberg, China's central bank governor and statistics chief signalled October data to be published from today will show growth improving this quarter. Meanwhile, the head of the People's Bank of China said that some indicators are rebounding and the economy is stabilizing. Separately, the head of the National Bureau of Statistics added that people will be 'more confident' about the fourth-quarter expansion.

Noble Group's 3Q12 core profit of US$67.1m (-54% q-o-q) was below our US$146-152m estimate. Key areas of disappointment were Agriculture and Energy segment. FY12F-14F core earnings lowered by 6-21% on reduced Agriculture and Energy contribution. Maintain Buy, TP revised to S$1.50 (Prev S$ 1.60). We still see Noble's earnings trending higher despite volatility on a quarterly basis and thus would use any near term share price weakness as an opportunity to BUY. The stock is currently down in reaction to the results release. Technically, immediate support is at $1.18.

3Q DPU for Parkway Life REIT was within expectations, up 7.1% to 2.58Scts. Management continues to adopt a cautious stance on acquisitions given ongoing macro uncertainties. Our analyst has raised DPU by c.5%, TP at S$2.08 (Prev S$ 1.95). Retain HOLD. Whilst we like PREIT for its defensive attributes and exposure in the healthcare sector, we believe these factors are already priced in. PREIT is amongst the lowest yielding SREIT with a yield of 4.8%/4.9% for FY12F/13F, below the SREIT universe average of 5.8%.

Results for UOL Groupwithin expectations, net profits declined 13% y-o-y to $87.8m, dragged by a dip in residential profits. Outlook to be boosted by higher hotel contributions and two planned residential launches. Maintain Buy, TP $6.14 (Prev S$ 6.12).

Venture's 3Q12 fell short on lower margin; rest of FY12 dim, new products are expected to drive 2013. Free cash flow remains strong, which can support dividend. FY12F/13F earnings cut by 9/6% on lower margin assumption. Maintain Hold on lower TP of S$7.62 (Prev S$ 8.15).

3Q12 results for Super Group ahead of estimates due to higher ingredient volume sales and margins. Margins will continue to expand along with stronger revenue growth in FY13F. Our analyst has revised FY13F/FY14F earnings higher by 15%/18%. Maintain BUY, TP raised to S$2.95 (Prev S$ 2.56).

Petra Food's 3Q below expectations, net profit slumped 25%. Cocoa processing margins dropped faster and stronger than expected. Branded Consumer shows robust growth, but unable to mitigate slump in cocoa processing. Earnings trimmed by 21%/24%, downgrade to FULLY VALUED, TP: S$1.95 (Prev S$ 2.10).

Wilmar's 3Q12 net profit of US$405.8m (+26.4% y-o-y; +246.4% q-o-q) was above our expectations of US$280- 322m. There will be an analyst briefing later this afternoon; our HOLD rating and TP of S$3.25 are under review for now.

OCBC's 3Q12 core net profit of S$724m (+12% q-o-q, +44% y-o-y) above expectations, driven by higher non-interest income, particularly from insurance and trading income, supported by wealth management income. The key deviation from our estimates arose from higher than expected trading income. Net interest margin fell by 2bps (as expected); Loans grew by 1% q-o-q; 8% y-o-y driven mainly by S$ loans. Non-performing loan (NPL) ratios further improved to 0.8% (2Q12: 0.9%), still the lowest vs peers. Maintain Buy; S$10.70 TP. Will provide more details after results briefing today.

In property news, City Developments' unit Verspring Properties has emerged as the top bidder with its $135m bid for the 99-year-leasehold executive condominium (EC) site at the junction of Sengkang West Way and Fernvale Link. The site drew six bidders, with Verspring Properties' bid translating into a psf ppr price of $296.50. Verspring Properties' offer is just 0.1% higher than that of the second bidder, Overall, offers ranged between $265 and $296.5 psf ppr.

Source: DBSV
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