Towards Financial Freedom

DBSV S'pore Wired Daily 10 August 2012

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Publish date: Fri, 10 Aug 2012, 10:18 AM

Today's Focus
Keppel Corp ' Secured US$950m contract from Petrobras; SembCorp Marine next in line.

Ezion ' Growth and visibility stretches into FY14; maintain BUY, TP raised to S$1.42.

MIIF - Yield may not be sustainable; downgrade to HOLD, TP cut to S$0.58.

Keppel Corp has secured two contracts worth a total of about US$950m from the Petrobras-led consortiums, Guara BV and Tupi BV, for the fabrication and integration of topside modules on the Floating Production Storage and Offloading vessels (FPSO) P-66 and P-69. As part of the agreement, Petrobras has an option for a similar contract to be exercised by 1Q 2014. These latest orders bring Keppel's FY12 YTD order wins to S$8.5bn (vs. full year order wins assumption of S$11.2bn), and raises its order backlog to S$14.6bn. Maintain BUY on Keppel, TP S$13.20. Based on previous reports from Upstream, we believe Sembcorp Marine is next in line to secure 2 of such FPSO projects, with similar value.

Ezion's 2Q12 results above expectations; and we expect a stronger 2H. Exion has also secured new projects worth US$239m including LOI for new liftboat. FY12/13F earnings revised up by 4%/7%.Maintain BUY, TP raised to S$1.42 (Prev S$ 1.35). Despite the 49% rise in share price YTD, valuations are still undemanding at 6x FY13F PE.

Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund (MIIF) has declared 2.75Scts dividend for 1H12, and guidance for 2H12 maintained at similar level. But dividends are unlikely to be sustainable at this level in FY13 and beyond, as income from expressway asset is set to reduce substantially. Downgrade to HOLD with TP of S$0.58 (Prev S$ 0.62)

3Q results for China Fishery Group were below expectations on later start of Peruvian Anchovy fishing season. Our analyst expects 4Q to show improvements with backlog of inventory to be sold. We should see a stronger 4Q contribution from its fishmeal operations, coupled with a seasonally-stronger contribution from its fishing fleet. Catalyst could come from pre-payment of supply agreement, reaping savings. Worst looks to be over, BUY with TP of S$1.15 (Prev S$ 1.32).

2Q12 core net loss of US$6m for NOL was within estimates. Cost saving initiatives is bearing fruit. 3Q peak season results will likely be better. Beyond 3Q, visibility is limited, as the unfavourable containership demand-supply mismatch will continue to pressure rates, especially in the low season. Maintain HOLD with TP of S$1.23.

Bharti's earnings were 37% below consensus estimate due to intensified competition. Bharti is expected to remain aggressive in maintain its revenue share. As a result, SingTel's FY13F/14F earnings were trimmed by 2%/3%. Maintain HOLD with lower TP of S$3.25 (Prev S$ 3.29). Near-term cost pressures from mobile advertising in Singapore is a concern.

StarHub's net profits of S$86.8m (+11% y-o-y, -2% q-o- q) were broadly in line with consensus estimates of S$84m. StarHub paid cash tax for the very first time. In the past, StarHub had never paid any cash taxes due to certain tax credits. It has also ruled out capital management, citing new reasons: capex needs for 4G and enterprise business in the longer term. Maintain HOLD for 5.6% yield assuming higher DPS of 21 Scts in FY13F. StarHub is not cheap at 19x FY12 PE versus 14x historical average.

Core profit of S$31m for Venture was below forecast due to higher proportion of lower margin products New product launches/customers in 2H should drive growth in 2013. No change to forecast; maintain HOLD and TP of S$8.15. The stock has rebounded to $7.77, which is just slightly above the $7.70 short-term resistance. Technically, we continue to see downward risk to $7.15 or even as low as $6.80.

Yangzijiang's 2Q12 net profit was slightly below on lower forex gain. YTD order wins stands at US$295m, while orderbook is at US$3.8bn. Yangzijiang has outstanding options for 26 units of 10k TEU containership worth US$2.6bn with Seaspan and Peter Dohle, where some could materialise in 2H, though possibly at lower prices. Maintain BUY and S$1.55 TP, supported by undemanding valuations and attractive dividend yield of 6%.

Midas Holdingsexpects 2Q12 and H12 results to be significantly lower than the corresponding prior periods. The expected decline is mainly attributed to:
-Lower revenue;
-Higher operating expenses and finance cost; and
-Significantly wider share of loss from its associated company, Nanjing SR Puzhen Rail Transport Co., Ltd.

Xinren Aluminumexpects its overall revenues and earnings to be significantly lower for 1H12 as compared to 1H11. The group was affected by (i) the overall decrease in the average selling price and sales volume of aluminum products; (ii) an increase in the costs of electricity; and (iii) the lower trading margin to total sales.

Stamford Tyres is forming a $12.3m JV company with Sumitomo Rubber Asia (Tyre) to cater to India's fast- growing replacement-tyre market. Under the agreement, Sumitomo will hold a 60% stake in the JV company Falken Tyre India (FTI), while Stamford Tyres will hold 0%.

The Singapore economy is now expected to grow 1.5 to 2.5% this year, according to Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. This cuts the top end of the government's earlier 1-3% forecast, while raising its bottom end by half a percentage point. The economy grew 1.7% in the first half. Assuming no changes to Q1 GDP, this points to year-on-year growth of 2% in the second quarter, marginally above the flash estimate of 1.9% growth.

Final GDP figures for 2Q12 announced this morning saw the economy contract by 0.7% QoQ. That translates into a 2.0% YoY expansion. This is a upward revision from a 1.1% QoQ (1.9% YoY) decline reported in the earlier advance GDP estimates.

China's factory output growth slowed unexpectedly in July to its weakest in more than three years. Industrial output growth slowed to 9.2% y-o-y in July, its weakest since May 2009, down from 9.5% in June. Consumer inflation eased to 1.8% in July from 2.2% in June, pulling back further from a three-year high last July of 6.5%. Consumer prices edged up 0.1% in July from the previous month, compared compared to expectations of a 0.1% drop.

Source: DBSV
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