Towards Financial Freedom

Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Daily : 23 July 2012

kiasutrader
Publish date: Mon, 23 Jul 2012, 10:08 AM

Today's Focus
' CapitaCommercial Trust - Downgrade to HOLD on valuation grounds, TP: S$1.40

We maintain our view for STI to range from 2800 (12.4x or - 1SD blended FY12/13F PE factoring in a 2.5% earnings cut) to 3100 (13.26x or -0.5SD blended FY12/13F PE) in 3Q with re- rating potential towards the average blended FY12/13F PE level only if macro uncertainties dissipate.

Meanwhile, STI's pullback off the intra-week high of 3040 is in-line with our technical view that STI is likely to range from 2900-3025 heading into the earnings season. A pullback to 2930 is possible in the short-term.

The STI's recent strong performance is likely due to blue chip stocks benefiting from liquidity inflows into ASEAN countries that are seen as resilient to the external slowdown and offers downside protection capabilities.

Property, bank, telco and CPO stocks led the recent rally. Following their rise, we think SingTel, City Developments and UOB have become susceptible to profit taking as the upside potential to their respective TP either greatly narrows (UOB) or have even turned negative (City Development and SingTel).

Among the CPO stocks, Bumitama offers the best upside potential in percentage terms compared to other CPO stocks. We seek re-entry opportunities preferably when there is a pullback.

Consumer services namely Genting Singapore, shipping and S-chips underperformed. Meanwhile, we think Midas and Sound Global are exceptions to S-chips' lack lustre performance as both are potential beneficiaries to China's fiscal stimulus.

CapitaCommercial Trust 1H12 results in line, meeting 54% of our analyst's FY2012F DPU. Rents and occupancy continue to be firm. However, we are downgrading it to HOLD on valuation grounds, TP raised slightly to S$1.40 (Prev S$ 1.36).


Mapletree Logistics Trust's results were in line. The resilient results were backed by strong cashflows. Operational strength continues; gearing at 37% within management's comfortable range. BUY Call maintained, TP S$1.14. Stock offers a potential yield of close to 7%, which is higher than average peers and is attractive given  its resilient earnings stream.

2Q12 results for OKP Holdings came in below expectations. Revenue recognition and earnings were slower than expected in 1H12 as some key projects were yet to proceed beyond design phase. Our analyst has lowered FY12 earnings estimate by 26%. Lower dividend expectations and a delayed uptick in earnings means stock is unlikely to re-rate in near term, maintain HOLD with lower TP of S$0.54 (Prev S$ 0.65).

According to Upstream, Petrobras is set to award contracts worth c. US$4.5bn for the construction of topsides for 6 of 8 replica FPSO vessels over the next few days. The contracts for the remaining 2 units will be awarded in the next 18 months. These were the potential contracts we have highlighted previously. Among the shortlisted yards reported to be receiving these contracts imminently are Keppel Corpand Sembcorp Marine, apart from 4 other players - DM Construtora de Obras /TKK Engenharia, IESA Oleo e Gas, Tome Engenharia/Ferrostaal Industrieanlagen, Mendes Jr Trading Engenharia/OSX Constru''o Naval. Each unit is expected to worth c US$750m.

Jaya Holdings has signed an agreement with IHC Merwede Asia Pacific which enables IHC's high- specification offshore vessels to be produced by Jaya at its yards in Singapore and Batam, Indonesia. The agreement creates the opportunity for further collaboration between the companies in future.

AusGroup has been awarded a new contract for Jimblebar Project worth A$48m. With this contract award, AusGroup's order book today stands at A$420m.

Asiamedic has entered into a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Ni Ni Diagnostics and Healthcare, an unrelated third party in Myanmar, in relation to the possible establishment of a joint venture in the Myanmar to establish and operate an advanced imaging centre in Yangon, Myanmar. The proposed total investment of the joint venture is approximately S$1m. The Ni Ni group operates medical centres providing diagnostic imaging and laboratory services in Yangon.

Source: DBS
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