· US stocks have come off their March lows, but value judgements are difficult given the economy. The markets appeared to be pricing in a quick recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, but bonds haven't reflected that, and equities themselves have stalled the past two weeks. · US stocks eked out small gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.1% at 23,750. The S&P 500 was up 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.2%. Equities appeared to be following a rally that started in the oil market.
· Meanwhile, the economy is still under pressure. On Monday, retailer J. Crew Group Inc. filed for bankruptcy protection, crushed by the damage from coronavirus. It was the first big retailer to do so, but others are likely to follow.
· Equities will likely remain under pressure amid simmering US-China tensions and uncertainty over the impact of some American states beginning to re-open. Investors are weighing fears of a second wave of infections and a steady stream of bad economic data against efforts by many countries to start easing lockdown restrictions.
· In Asia, sentiment is likely to be subdued with markets closed in Japan, China and South Korea. Hong Kong will be in focus after the economy contracted 8.9% in the first quarter from a year earlier, its worst quarter ever.
· The Reserve Bank of Australia's comments about the economy may be the most interesting thing out of its meeting today. The Australian central bank is already at its effective lower bound and has scaled back QE, having anchored its targeted rate for now.
· Investors may take comfort from reports that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley economists said there is evidence the world economy is starting to recover from the coronavirus and the restrictions placed on businesses and consumers.
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