Mayo branding and heavy capex drives 2015-25E group PATMI CAGR of 22%
Raffles Medical Group (RMG) PATMI is slated to double by 2021E and increase by 7x by 2025E - propelled by network expansion, 3.5x increase in bill size per patient, and 5x growth of its operational beds. In the near term, recent Mayo Clinic tie-up and expansion in Singapore would drive 2015-17E PATMI CAGR of 16.5%. Compared to consensus, our Shanghai hospital forecast is aggressive but fair, and we incorporate Shenzhen hospital into our target price. FY16E EV/EBITDA at 17.3x is cheap versus c.19.5x peer average. China ventures are underappreciated at current prices - investors should position before Shenzhen hospital details are announced and eventual recognition of Mayo branding.
Read more »