Results below expectations
Samudera's 3Q15 net profit of US$1.2m (-77% YoY) was affected by the slowdown in trade across the region resulting in lower charter rates (mainly from its bulk carriers) and container volumes. Excluding the US$2.6m in impairment expenses, core net profit would have improved from the previous quarter by 5.1%, to US$3.8m. 9M15 core net profit makes up 72% of our full year forecasts. We slash our forecasts by 20-25% for FY15-17 as we take a more cautious view. Despite the weaker than expected results, the current share price does not justify Samudera's healthy positive free cash flow that continues to strengthen its balance sheet (net gearing now at 0.28x vs 0.33x, 0.52x and 0.66x in FY14/13/12), allowing the group to grow inorganically and providing upside rerating catalyst. Thus, we reiterate our BUY recommendation but with a lower TP of $0.29, pegged to 8x FY16F P/E. Even at our TP of $0.29, Samudera would be trading at an attractive 0.43x FY15F P/B, still one of the lowest among its peers.
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