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Longer crude price trough on resilient supply. CS reduces Brent forecast from US$76/bbl to US$58/bbl in 2016 and long-term forecast from US$85/bbl to US$75/bbl. The global rebalancing is taking longer as OPEC and US supply has not rolled off.
● We revise KrisEnergy's TP to S$0.44/sh from S$0.53/sh. There will be a doubling of YoY production in 2016 from Nong Yong and Wassana where first oil has commenced. Funds raised from rights issue leaves it in a more comfortable financial position. 2015/16E EPS reduced from US¢5.4/5.2 to US¢4.8/2.4.
● RH Petrogas' TP is revised to S$0.20/sh from S$0.30/sh. Severe fiscal terms and cost at Basin PSC which contributes ~90% of production will challenge short-term earnings. We see investment capex deferred as prolonged crude price trough makes raising funds more difficult in the next 12 months. We cut our 2015/16E EPS from US¢-1.3/0.3 to US¢-1.7/-0.4.
● Prefer KrisEnergy over RH Petrogas. Kris will benefit from volumetric production growth, albeit at muted prices. RHP is biased towards crude, and being late to fund raise is in a less favourable position.
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LanSeeBoy
Mad izzit!? Still 'prefer...'...sell /avoid both lah !
2015-09-09 14:02