The previously resilient consumer business model of Petra Foods continued to crack in 2Q15. Petra's 2Q15 net profit of US$7.4m was short of our and consensus expectations, at 18% and 16% of the respective full-year forecast. 1H15 earnings were at 34%/30% of our/consensus full-year estimates. The Indonesia market continued to see yoy sales decline, the quantum of decline magnified by a falling Rp and margins further crimped by rising costs on a falling Rp. The weak results necessitated further cuts to our below-consensus FY15-16 forecasts by 18-21%, and our target price (still based on 26x CY16 P/E) falls further. Times are still extremely challenging in Indonesia. Maintain Reduce, with expected earnings cuts as a key negative catalyst.
Read more »