We have been consistently bearish on the Chinese economy over the past few years, and would remind investors that nominal GDP growth is just 5.8%, nearly a third of its long run average. In our view, China is in the midst of a triple bubble, with the third biggest credit bubble of all time, the largest investment bubble (proxied by the investment share of GDP) and the second biggest real estate bubble. This is occurring against a backdrop of near record producer price deflation, near record low growth in bank deposits (the main source of internal liquidity), FX outflows (the main source of external liquidity) and falling house prices (with property accounting for the majority of household wealth).
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