Singapore Stock Market News
OCBC Oil Outlook - Remember the unquantifiable
StockFanatic
Publish date: Fri, 27 Mar 2015, 01:45 PM
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■ Crude oil prices rallied substantially on the relatively weaker dollar, but more importantly, the renewed geopolitical issues on Saudi Arabia and its allies' move in bombing Yemen. With the oil giant participating in the conflict, oil supply risk are likely magnified as a result.
■ Indeed, the risk of supply disruption is small. Yemen is a fairly insignificant oil supplier (about 100k bpd according to US EIA, or merely 0.1% of global oil supply). However, Yemen is located strategically along the Gulf of Aden, which Arab oil shippers use to export crude oil to Europe. The choke-point are less than 40km wide, but account for a significant 3.8 mbpd of oil transported through this narrow stream.
■ Geopolitical tensions, still an important but unquantifiable factor, are a primary reason for huge swings in oil prices. As we stand, the recent bombing have superseded abundant supply views, especially as US oil inventories continue to climb to record high of 467 million barrels. However, apart from geopolitical risk, our outlook for crude oil supply is for it to decline gradually as we approach 2H15, while oil demand is expected to stay healthy according to OPEC.
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