FY14's core net profit was slightly above our full-year forecast, but 2014 was really a year of divestments of non-core assets and potential takeover. Post the recent retracement after the expiry of the exclusivity agreement with regards to a takeover offer, we believe there is limited risk for UEM as 81% of its assets are either investment properties or largely-sold Singapore residential properties.
We upgrade UEM from Hold to Add, and believe it offers value at a 21% discount to RNAV. We tweak our RNAV-based TP (still 15% discount) and cut our FY15-16 EPS as we adjust our assumptions for its China residential projects and account for the sale of UE E&C.
Catalysts can come from operational improvements or potential takeover offers.
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