The disappearance of IAA Flight QZ8501 is tragic news.
The key concerns for AirAsia are
(1) to what extent will IAA's passenger demand in Indonesia fall by, and for how long, and
(2) to what extent will the Indonesian incident affect the Malaysian and Thai operations.
Of less concern are the costs related to claims and salvage, which should be adequately covered by insurance.
We maintain Add with an unchanged target price, based on 1.7x CY15 P/BV (average since 2008), because we believe that Indonesian demand should not be too adversely affected for too long, and the contagion effect should be limited for now. Rerating catalysts include lower fuel costs and improving yields in Malaysia. Investors should accumulate on price weakness.
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