Singapore Stock Market News
DBS Group - Rate Expectations
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Publish date: Tue, 25 Nov 2014, 08:41 PM
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■ Chasing US rate hikes?
DBS undoubtedly benefits from US rates normalization, but recent market activity (some days' turnover 2 times the 1-yr avg) and >2S.D. price ratio outperformance vs. the FSSTI, suggest this is a clear consensus long. But there are risks: [1] US rate hikes may be modest: Eurodollar Futures is pricing in 80bps by end-2015, from 110bps 2 months before. At 80bps US rates, implied 3M SGD SIBOR may be c.55bps (vs. 42bps now). [2] Growth outlook is uncertain:
We have concerns for Singapore domestic growth and regionally. DBS mgmt also pared loan guidance, citing China's macro outlook as a key variable. We remain positive on the DBS medium-term growth story, raising our target 16% to S$22.10, rolling forward to a 2015E earnings base on 12.2x PER (mean cycle level).
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