De-rating should continue; Downgrading to Underperform We believe investors are clinging onto GENS in hope. Hope of it somehow navigating through a mature SG gaming market and improve its returns. Hope of it investing all its cash into a lucrative overseas project and create value.
We think the stage is set for disappointment. We think the SG gaming market cannot grow and GENS will be pushed into extending more credit to VIP players to protect market share, leading to more bad debts and deterioration of returns.
Also, overseas expansion will remain in question as legislations are pushed out. In addition, consensus is too bullish (profit estimates 11-19% above ours) and valuations are too expensive (23x P/E, 2x P/B, 9x EV /EBITDA). We thus think that the downgrade cycle will continue. We downgrade GENS to Underperform with a target price of S$1.00 as we transfer coverage to Somesh Agarwal.
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