CPO futures prices have fallen below the RM2,000 mark for the first time in more than five years. This is steeper than expected, and negative for CPO producers. The sharper fall was due to a confluence of bearish factors. Global edible oil supplies are projected to be strong in the coming months. This is aggravated by reports that Chinese buyers are facing difficulty in raising financing and speculative selling by market players.
We think prices could bottom by Sep-Oct, when all the negatives are priced in. We maintain our Neutral rating and preference for planters with strong output growth, like First Resources. We remain negative on planters with rich valuations.
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