ASEAN Plantations - Indonesia's biodiesel progress | I3investor

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ASEAN Plantations - Indonesia's biodiesel progress

StockFanatic

Publish date: Mon, 16 Jun 2014, 12:02 PM

Indonesia's biodiesel consumption for 5M14 of 514,935kl was behind our forecast of 2m kl and the government's target of 3.96m kl for 2014. The minister cited poor infrastructure as one of the key challenges in meeting the target. It now expects volume of subsidised biodiesel blend to be 1.32m kl but did not provide forecast for others. Based on this, we estimate Indonesia may only consume 1.5m kl of biodiesel in 2014, which is 25% behind our forecast. This is negative for CPO prices but could be offset by lower supply due to drier weather in parts of Indonesia.

We remain optimistic on medium-term prospects of Indonesia's biodiesel usage as we see progress being made to improve the logistical issue. We keep our average CPO price forecast of RM2,700 per tonne for 2014, Neutral rating and key picks (AALI, First Resources, SIMP and Ta Ann Holdings).

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