Hyflux's 4Q13 results were derailed by a power plant delay that hit its recurring earnings and main earnings driver, given the lack of new project wins. Its FY13 core net profit missed both consensus and our expectations by coming in at only 81% of our full-year forecast. We lower our FY14-15 EPS by 15-25% on higher cost and lower order-win assumptions, and introduce our FY16 numbers. Our SOP-based target price is also lower to reflect fewer order wins, though this is partially offset by higher market multiples for its water portfolios.
We downgrade our call from Hold to Reduce as we believe a higher project win rate is needed to sustain its earnings growth, while the slower 1H14 guided by management is also not helping the investment case.
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