At 55% of our FY14 forecast, 1H core net profit of S$143m (+17% yoy) was 16% above our estimate and 6% above consensus due to lower-than-expected depreciation and tax. We raise our FY14-16 EPS by 26-38% for lower depreciation and tax as well as stronger margins. Our target price, which is based on 1.2x CY14 P/BV, its 5-year mean, rises accordingly.
We upgrade Olam from hold to Add as its initiatives to improve its operating performance are starting to bear fruit. Bottom-up improvements could help tide over a soft environment for commodities. The stock could be catalysed by progress in meeting its twin goals of pursuing profitable growth and generating positive FCF.
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