2Q was a bad quarter while 3Q was great - we are talking about GEH.
While OCBC's quarterly highs in NII and fee income were expected, the
3Q beat was primarily from GEH's non-par fund gains (MTM).
Overseas earnings were lower due to forex weakness.
Although 3Q profit beat our and
consensus expectations by a mile,
thanks to GEH, we do not consider it
cause to turn positive. Rising NPLs
are a concern even if they are just
normalising. 9M13 profit was 79% of
our full-year estimate and triggers a
2-4% hike in our forecasts, primarily
for GEH. Our GGM-based target price
is lifted to S$10.40 due to EPS hikes.
De-rating catalysts are rising credit
costs. Maintain Underperform.
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