We recommend taking profit in interest rates and domestic economic
sensitive stocks within ASEAN that have rallied strongly post the
surprise decision to delay Fed tapering. We see this as a temporary
reprieve for ASEAN that will not alter, substantially, the fundamental
divergences that are beginning to emerge relative to North Asia.
The
Fed has given ASEAN policy makers a stay of execution in order to
implement structural reform without the added headwind of rising
rates and weaker currencies. We are looking for a combination of
further fiscal reform (Malaysia, Indonesia), rate hikes/currency
stabilizing measures (Indonesia) or for markets to trade outright
cheap (together with a reset lower of near term growth and earnings
expectations) if we are to take more than a tactically positive stance.
Stay long North Asia and sell the ASEAN rally.
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