Uralkali's plans to end its export sales of potash (What is that?) through the Belarusian
Potash Company has led to the concern that potash prices could fall by
25% as competition in the potash market heats up. This will be positive
for palm oil producers as there will be a reduction in fertiliser costs.
Our rough estimate reveals that a
25% drop in potash prices could boost
planters' profit by as much as 7%.
However, it is unclear whether the
drop in potash prices will be as steep
as those predicted by Uralkali. We
keep our earnings forecasts
unchanged and will review them once
the planters have locked in their
fertiliser costs. We maintain our
Neutral rating as the sector lacks
catalysts. Our top picks are First
Resources, Wilmar and IOI Corp.
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