At 92% of our full-year core EPS forecasts, GENS's FY12 results came
in below expectations. There is renewed management optimism on the
resurgence of the VIP business, but we are cautious that it has been
fuelled only by credit rather than a sustainable growth in the business.
Our FY13-14 EPS estimates are 5-12%
ahead of consensus, but we choose to
maintain our EPS forecasts to factor
in the upside risk of a potential VIP
recovery, which is a catalyst. Despite
this, valuations are at par on an
EV/EBITDA basis to most of the
Macau operators, which are
structurally in a better position to
operate with VIP junket credit. RNAV
target price of S$1.20 and
Underperform maintained.
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