Singapore Stock Market News

Daily Gold - strongly to the upside?

StockFanatic
Publish date: Mon, 06 Feb 2012, 11:55 AM
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Chart 1
Chart 1 ' A good move above the triangle down line with the MACD still pointing strongly to the upside. The MACD signal is very strong to the upside as you can see but the lines are closing so watch for a cross to the downside.

We hit our previous target of 1,500 very nicely indeed. I'll post the new Fibonacci Projection target next week but the upside target from here is 1,790 by the study. We have pretty much reached this level. 

Chart 2
Chart 2 ' The signals here are still overbought and a good correction is still very possible. Look at the RMI as well.

The Bollinger is lending good support and resistance so do keep an eye on it at the upper line. The RMI is now flirting with the overbought line so bear that in mind as we approach our target of 1,790.

Chart 3 ' We could be looking at a typical Dow Curve on the very long term chart. This could be similar to the Nadaq in 2000 where the peak is followed by a consolidation period which is followed by a sell off. On this dual chart I've moved the current gold price action on a weekly chart back in time to 2000 when the Nasdaq turned around.

Chart 3
The Nasdaq pullback was a classic Dow Curve in as much as when a market peaks out after an overblown rally there is a period of consolidation after the peak when the real bears are offset by those who think the pullback is a better level to buy. In 2000 it was a classic and the true believers in the internet miracle fought against those investors who were convinced the whole internet boom was massively overdone.

Massive market rallies, such as we saw on the Nasdaq and more recently gold have to be watched carefully. I'm not saying we are in the same situation now as the Nasdaq in 2000 but if I were holding gold I'd certainly be keeping it in mind.

Source : Reuters Market Technical Analysis by Phil Smith
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