• 2QFY20 DPU +3.4% YoY
• Positive rental reversions of 1.8%
• Proposed acquisitions from sponsor

2QFY20 Results In-line With Our Expectations

Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) reported an in-line set of 2QFY20 results. Gross revenue and NPI jumped 14.2% and 21.0% YoY to S$121.8m and S$109.1m, respectively. DPU rose at a smaller pace of 3.4% YoY to 2.025 S cents due to higher management fees and finance costs.

For 1HFY20, MLT’s gross revenue rose 13.9% to S$241.6m; NPI increased 19.6% to S$215.3m; while DPU improved 3.4% to 4.05 S cents and this formed 50.7% of our FY20 forecast.

Operations Remain Resilient

Notwithstanding the vagaries seen in the macroeconomic environment, MLT’s operations remain largely stable. Overall portfolio occupancy was 97.5% (-0.1 ppt QoQ), as the slight decline in occupancy in China (-1.0 ppt) and South Korea (- 0.4 ppt) was offset by an improvement in Hong Kong (+1.6 ppt). Average rental reversions remained positive at 1.8%, and this was driven largely by Hong Kong (+2.9%), Malaysia (+3.1%) and Vietnam (+3.3%).

Proposed Acquisition of Properties in Malaysia, Vietnam and China From Sponsor

Management noted that the ongoing Sino-US trade tensions have resulted in positive spillover effects to some ASEAN markets such as Malaysia and Vietnam, as evidenced by an increase in leasing enquiries. Besides the manufacturing sector, some of the Chinese e-commerce players which have experienced a slowdown in growth in the domestic market have identified ASEAN as another avenue for growth. Given such opportunities, MLT has proposed to acquire a portfolio of seven modern logistics properties from its sponsor in Malaysia (one), Vietnam (two) and China (50% interest in four properties).

The agreed property value of the portfolio is S$406.3m (based on MLT’s stake), and translates into an implied NPI yield of ~6.1% (China: 5.7%; Malaysia: 6.0% and Vietnam: 7.9%). After incorporating MLT’s recently proposed forward purchase of a warehouse in Truganina, Melbourne, we lift our fair value marginally to S$1.41 from S$1.40.

We have not factored in MLT’s proposed acquisition of the portfolio of assets in Malaysia, Vietnam and China, as this is still pending an EGM approval and the final funding outcome has yet to be finalised. On a pro forma basis, FY19 DPU is estimated to increase by 1.0%, although we see upside potential to DPU accretion given MLT’s current trading price relative to the S$1.53 illustrative share price used.

Source: OCBC Research - 22 Oct 2019