Non-Oil Domestic Exports (NODX) in May 2014 surprised on the downside, declining by -6.6% YoY (Apr 2014: +0.9% YoY).

Electronics continue to decline (May 2014: -15.3% YoY), pulled down by almost all categories.

Shipments to key markets are in the red except for China, Malaysia, Indonesia and India. Keeping our 2014 NODX forecast at +3.1% for now.

Non-Oil Domestic Exports (NODX) fell by –6.6% YoY in May 2014 (Apr 2014: +0.9% YoY; Consensus: +0.5% YoY) on declines in both electronics and non-electronic shipments. From the previous month, NODX was down by -9.4% MoM (Apr 2014: +5.5% MoM) while the seasonally adjusted measure came in at -7.5% MoM (s.a Apr 2014: +9.0% MoM). For the first five months of 2014, the drop in NODX narrowed to -1.8% YoY compared with -8.8% YoY reported over the corresponding period in 2013.

Non-Oil re-exports (NORX) in the red for the first time in 14 months (May 2014: -4.7% YoY; Apr 2014: +6.6% YoY). Growth trends in the coming months are expected to remain relatively restrained as it normalises from the high base effect created from its extraordinary performance since April last year. NORX, which made up nearly 44% of Singapore’s total exports in May 2014, remained range bound at SGD19.0b when compared to the average monthly NORX shipment values over the past twelve months (Averaged SGD 19.1b). This is likely reflective of global trade conditions remaining relatively stable heading into 2H 2014.

Global manufacturing PMI picked up in May 2014 to 52.2 after slowing down in the preceding two months (Apr 2014: 51.9; Mar 2014: 52.4) driven by improvements in the US and UK. Global factory activities were underpinned by expansion in total new orders (May 2014: 53.1; Apr 2014: 52.6) and new export orders (May 2014: 51.8; Apr 2014: 51.0). This trend was also reflected in Singapore’s sub-index for manufacturing PMI on “new exports orders” which held up at 52.4 in May 2014 (Apr 2014: 52.5).

Source: Maybank Kim Eng Research - 18 Jun 2014