Final 1Q 2014 GDP growth was +4.9% YoY and +2.3% seasonally adjusted QoQ (4Q 2013: +4.9% YoY; +6.9% s.a. QoQ), slower YoY but stronger QoQ growth from advanced estimates (advanced estimate: +5.1% YoY; +0.1% s.a QoQ).

All sectors maintain positive growth led by the manufacturing sector. On the demand side, external demand was strong with +6.8% YoY growth.

Maintain our 2014 growth forecast at +3.7%. Official real GDP growth forecast remains at +2.0% to +4.0%.   Final 1Q 2014 GDP growth lower than advance estimate. 1Q 2014 real GDP growth was +4.9% YoY (4Q 2013: + 4.9% YoY), slower than the advance estimate of +5.1% YoY. The economy gained by seasonally adjusted +2.3% annualized QoQ (4Q 2013: +6.9% s.a. QoQ; adv. est. 1Q 2014: +0.1% s.a. QoQ). By sectors, final readings for Manufacturing came up stronger (+9.8% YoY vs. adv. est.: +8.0% YoY) but slower growth posted in Services (+4.4% YoY vs. adv. est.: +4.7% YoY).

By sectors, growth was led by manufacturing and construction. Manufacturing growth was largely due to a sharp rebound in biomedical industry and stronger growth in chemicals output as well as sustained expansion in electronics, while construction sector benefited from stronger expansion in public sector construction activities. Services were affected by softer wholesale & retail trade, accommodation & food services and finance & insurance sub-sectors. Despite the services sector’s slower growth at +4.4% YoY (4Q 2013: +5.5% YoY), the sector contributed +2.9 ppt to growth in 1Q 2014 (manufacturing: +1.8ppt; construction: +0.3ppt).  

Source: Maybank Kim Eng Research - 21 May 2014