• FY13 earnings 2.8% above forecast
• Still looking towards Japan
• Maintain HOLD with new S$1.43 FV

FY13 results in-line; 1c dividend

Genting Singapore (GS) reported FY13 revenue of S$2847.3m, down 3%, and was about 3.8% below our forecast, mainly due to weaker-than-expected win percentages in 4Q13. Net profit was up 1% at S$589.4m, or around 2.8% above our forecast. We judge these numbers to be largely in line with our forecast. GS also declared a final dividend of S$0.01/share, unchanged from last year.

Cautiously optimistic about SG VIP business

Despite the seemingly negative headlines coming out of China, GS has managed to grow its VIP market there, hence management continues to remain “cautiously optimistic” about its VIP business in Singapore. Currently, VIP makes up around 57% of its gross gaming revenue. But it is more cautious about the mass market, noting that the significant appreciation of the SGD against the regional currencies has affected not only its mass gaming business, but also the attraction business.

Jeju first, then Japan

On the call, GS also shed more light on its recent JV to build an IR in Jeju Island, South Korea. With Jeju being an island resort similar to Sentosa, GS believes it will be a captive model for those within a 3-hour flight time; this is especially good as mainland Chinese do not need a visa to visit Jeju. As for Japan, GS thinks that it may still take some time before the bill gets passed and construction of any casino would only start in 2017. In the meantime, GS will continue to look for opportunities in other places.

HOLD with new S$1.43 FV

To reflect a higher capex spend due to the Jeju JV (construction likely to start in 2H13), we have adjusted our cashflow assumptions; this results in our DCF-based fair value easing slightly from S$1.48 to S$1.43. Given the limited upside from here, we continue to maintain our HOLD rating.

Source: OCBC Research - 21 Feb 2014