SGX Stocks and Warrants

Euphoria over monetary stimulus diminishes

kimeng
Publish date: Mon, 01 Oct 2012, 10:09 AM
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Warrants Highlight

Euphoria over monetary stimulus diminishes

Code Name Type Expiry Exercise Price
Q1AW STI 3100MBeCW121031 Call 31-Oct-12 3100
Q0ZW STI 2950MBePW121031 Put 31-Oct-12 2950

Note:
The Hong Kong exchange will be closed on Monday and Tuesday. Macquarie will resume market making of the HSI on 3 Oct, Wednesday.
China will be closed for a week to celebrate their national day. Macquarie will resume market making on the China A50 on 8 Oct, the following Monday.

Effectiveness of QE3 questioned
Two weeks ago on 13 Sept, the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced a third quantitative easing which sent the markets soaring. The S&P rallied to a high of 1465.77 on 14 Sept, up 2% from 12 Sept close. After which, the markets consolidated with the S&P trading in a 20 point range. However, last week, the US economy trudged through a topsy turvy week with renowned financial figures questioning the effectiveness of the Fed's bond buying plans.

Spain needs to do more
In addition, the long dragging sovereign debt crisis appeared to unnerve Spanish citizens as they displayed their unhappiness through protests that turned violent. Germany, Finland and the Netherlands said that Spain should share the debt burden and not expect the European Stability Mechanism to dole out money freely. Investors sold the markets in response and on 26 Sep, the S&P erased all its gains it had since the QE3.

Euro crisis taking a turn for the better?
Late last week, however, the debt crisis took a step forward as the Spanish government introduced its austerity plan that aims to cut overall spending in 2013 by 40bil Euro. Also, the Spanish government released banking stress tests which showed that the banking system requires 59.3bil euros of additional capital to cover losses from investments in real estate which was less than what economists were previously expecting.

Speculation over Chinese stimulus
Over the weekend, worries over China's slowing economy continued with a private survey of manufacturing activity showing yet another contraction that now lasts almost a year. The weak number puts more urgency for the Chinese government to come up with additional stimulus, which may show that speculation earlier in the week was not unfounded.

Key Macro Data this week
Below are the dates for key macro data released this week.

Mon 1 Oct: US ISM manufacturing, Eur manufacturing PMI, Eur unemployment rate, China manufacturing PMI
Tue 2 Oct: Eur PPI, Spore PMI
Wed 3 Oct: Eur retail sales, China non-manufacturing PMI
Thu 4 Oct: ECB announces rates, HK retail sales
Fri 5 Oct: Minutes of FOMC meeting

 

Singapore Market Wrap

Good month for Southeast Asian Indices

The Straits Times Index (STI) ended up 0.91points (0.03%) to 3060.34 day-on-day and 1.15% month-on-month. The STI underperformed most of its Southeast Asian peers this month after a weak set of macro economic indicators, despite an increase in investors' risk appetite after the US Fed's 3rd round of quantitative easing.

STI 3100MBeCW121031 (Q1AW) exercise level 3,100.*
STI 2950MBePW121031 (Q0ZW) exercise level 2,950.*

SingTel - Temasek's $1.28bn share sale
Temasek Holdings said last Wednesday that it was selling $1.28bn of SingTel shares or its 2.5% stake at $3.20 each. Temasek will still own 8.27bn of SingTel shares after the sale, with the company staying as Temasek's biggest holding in a listed company by market value.

SingTel slumped 3.9% on the day of its announcement, its biggest decline since August 2011. and finished down the same amount for the week, closing at $3.20.

Call SingTelMBeCW130301 (PB6W) exercise price $3.30.*
Call SingTelMBeCW130603 (Q4AW) exercise price $3.80.*

Singapore Residential Price Index up 1%
According to the Residential Price Index developed by the NUS Institute of Real Estate Studies, prices of completed non-landed private homes rose 1% in August. This is in contrast to it's July 0.6% decline. Homes of the non-central areas led the rebound with a 1.5% increase.

Capitaland ended down 0.31% to $3.18 on Friday and 5.65% month for month

CapitalaMB eCW130204 (Q4HW) exercise level 3.40.*
CapitalaMB ePW130103 (Q4EW) exercise level 3.00.*

Singapore bank lending rising 2.3%
Total bank lending rose 2.3% in August in Singapore, and 19.2% compared to a year ago. Loans amounted to S$468.8billion in August compared to S$458.3 billion in July, whereas housing loans increased from S$141.3 billion to S$143.3 billion from July to August.

DBS ended up 0.14% to $14.39 for Friday's trading session, 0.4% down month-on-month (m.o.m). OCBC dropped 0.1% to $9.34, but improved 0.5% m.o.m. UOB retreated 0.35% to $19.65 on Friday but had also risen 2.9% m.o.m.

DBS MB eCW121101 (QZ1W) exercise level 15.00.*
DBS MB ePW121205(Q7SW) exercise level 13.80.*

OCBC Bk MBeCW121203 (Q1QW) exercise level 10.00.*
OCBC Bk MBePW121203 (Q4SW) exercise level 9.00.*

UOB MB eCW121101(Q3YW) exercise level 21.00.*
UOB MB ePW121102(Q3ZW) exercise level 19.00.*

Overnight Market Wrap

Investors unconvinced over mixed US data

Market participants had much to dwell about on a rather data-heavy Friday. Chicago ISM Manufacturing fell to 49.7, below the key 50.0 level, signifying a contraction for the first time in three years. The slowdown in business activity means that manufacturing may be playing a smaller role in helping the US recovery. The S&P 500 declined 0.5% dod, closing at 1440.67.

In another data release, consumer confidence rose to 78.3, a tad below the four year high of 79.3, suggesting that consumers are growing increasingly more positive on the economy's outlook. The rise in consumer confidence may help prompt more spending, however, although US consumer spending reportedly increasing 0.5%, most of it was due to inflation. After adjusting for inflation, real spending barely rose suggesting that an economic recovery through increasing consumer demand remains challenging.

Overnight Markets

Indices Last Change
STI 3060.34 0.0%
HSI 20840.40 0.4%
DJIA 13437.10 -0.4%
S&P 500 1440.67 -0.5%
Nasdaq 3116.23 -0.7%
China A50 7275.19 1.5%

Corporate News

Corporate Announcements

Ezra today announced that its subsea construction division, EMAS AMC, has been awarded a contract from Petroleum Technical Services Corporation Mechanical and Construction (PTSC M&C) for the transportation and installation of facilities for the Dua subsea field, which will be developed as a subsea tie-back to the Chim Sao Field in offshore Vietnam. The contract value is approximately US$47 million and will commence in the third quarter of 2012.

Earnings release dates:
Fri 12 Oct: SPH (4Q12)
Thu 18 Oct: SGX (1Q13)
Thu 18 Oct: Keppel Corp (3Q12)
Thu 25 Oct: NOL (3Q12)

Ex-dividend dates:
Tue 6 Nov: Olam ($0.05)

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