SGX Stocks and Warrants

CapitaLand Target Price $3.77

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Publish date: Wed, 18 Jul 2012, 09:31 AM
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Warrants Highlight

CapitaLand Target Price $3.77

Code Name Type Expiry Exercise Price
QC5W CapitalaMBeCW120904 Call 04-Sep-12 2.979
Q0MW CapitalaMBeCW130103 Call 03-Jan-13 3.00
QR6W CapitalaMBePW121203 Put 03-Dec-12 2.60
P5OW CapitalaMBePW121004 Put 04-Oct-12 2.979

Over the past two months, CapitaLand has recovered from its sub-$2.50 levels to $2.96 yesterday. If the momentum continues, the stock could be retesting the psychological $3.00 soon. Macquarie Equities Research (MER) has a target price of $3.77 for the stock

CapitaLand is scheduled to announce its 2Q11 results on 1st Aug.

Home prices to fall 10% in 2012, demand in line with 2011*
MER is currently forecasting new Singapore home sales of 16,000 units in 2012, in line with the 15,902 units in 2011 and 3-yr average of 15,630 units. MER believes that the key sales drivers remain intact, including:
(1) low interest rates resulting in positive rental yield spread and negative real interest rates; (2) low unemployment rate; and
(3) strong upgrader demand from locals.

However, buying momentum could slow down in 2H12 to circa 650-750 units per month vs. 1H12’s 2,000 units, due to:
(1) government’s increased supply;
(2) global macroeconomic slowdown; and
(3) seasonally slower Jul-Aug period due to Hungry Ghost Festival.

MER expects prices to drop by circa 10% in 2012, with the high-end segment experiencing a steeper fall of 15%, while mass and mid segments should see gentler decreases of 5% and 10% respectively.

Asset recycling move
Earlier this month, CapitaLand announced its acquisitions and divestments plan involving The Ascott limited (TAL) and Ascott Residence Trust (ART). TAL will pay $359m to buy Somerset Grand Cairnhill from ART; and will sell Ascott Raffles Place ($220m) and Ascott Guangzhou ($63.3m) to ART. Through the transactions, CapitaLand will recognise a net gain of $94.1mn in 2012.

MER commented in its 9th July report that this move will enable CapitaLand to get access to a prime condo site at a reasonable price, funded partly by the monetisation of the two Ascott properties to its REIT associate. MER thinks that CapitaLand is attractive, trading at a 37% discount to its Revalued Net Asset Value of $4.72 and there is a potential upside of 27% to MER’s target price of $3.77.

* Excerpt from MER report dated 16 July

Singapore Market Wrap

A joyful day indeed

While waiting for Ben Bernanke to testify before the Senate Banking Committee, the Asian markets had a pretty good day, with most major indices ending positive. Investors are becoming increasing optimistic about an announcement of a third quantitative easing as well as the resolve of global banks to co-operate and support the sluggish economy.

In our home country, Singapore was pleasantly surprised with non-oil domestic exports increasing 6.7% month on month, more than tripling analyst estimates. In China, Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) missed estimates, declining 6.9% year on year. A Bloomberg survey showed that analysts were expecting a 2% decline. Nevertheless, the disappointing FDI failed to dampen the stock markets and indices across Asia added gains.

The HSI led the rally, closing at 19455.33, up 1.8% dod while the STI ended at 3014.8, up 0.54% dod.

Call STI 2950MBeCW120831 (QE8W) exercise level 2,950.*
Call STI 3200MBeCW130328 (Q0QW) exercise level 3,200.*
Put STI 2850MBePW120831 (QE9W) exercise level 2,850.*
Put STI 2700MBePW130328 (Q0RW) exercise level 2,700.*

Yangzijiang and Creon enters joint-venture
In the midst of the Singapore trading session, Creon announced on Bloomberg that it will be entering a joint venture (JV) with Yangzijiang (YZJ). Creon will be investing US$15.33 mil while YZJ will be investing US$14.67 mil into the JV company, YZJ offshore.

"YZJ offshore will provide the marketing procurement, front end engineering and design, and management consultancy services for the construction, fabrication and repair of oil and gas marine vessels and platform," quoted from Bloomberg.

Yangzijiang closed at $1.04, up 1.5% dod.

Call warrant YangzijiMBeCW121203 (QR1W) exercise price $0.950.*
Call warrant YangzijiMBeCW130102 (O9LW) exercise price $1.20.*

STX OSV signs Letter of Intent
Shortly after the STI closed, STX OSV announced on the SGX that it has entered into a contract with Troms Offshore Supply for the design and construction of the Platform Supply Vessel. The vessel is scheduled for delivery in 1Q 2014 in Norway.

STX OSV closed at $1.58, up 2.6% dod.

Call warrant STXOSV MB eCW121203 (QR8W) exercise price $1.50.*

Overnight Market Wrap

Rally on Bernanke's speech

The US markets rallied after Ben Bernanke mentioned that the Fed is ready to offer more economic stimulus and the S&P closed at 1363.67, up 0.7% dod. The 10-year US Treasury note rose to 1.51%.

In his speech, Bernanke made clear that economic activities have slowed in the first half of the year. Unemployment has remained persistently above 8% and this took its toll on household spending and the less-than-ideal improvement in housing. Manufacturing has also slowed these few months. However he said, "These headwinds should fade over time allowing the economy to grow somewhat more rapidly and unemployment rate to decline to a more normal level".

Going forward, the Fed will be looking to improve fiscal policies in a way that will "take into account both the need for long-term sustainability and the fragility of the recovery". In regards to monetary policies, the Fed will be continuing the Maturity Extension Program which includes the purchase of longer-term Treasury securities and the sale of shorter-term ones. Also, interest rates would be kept low at least through late 2014.

Lastly, he emphasized that the "Committee is prepared to take further action as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in the labour market conditions in a context of price stability".

Overnight Markets

Indices Last Change
STI 3014.80 0.5%
HSI 19455.33 1.8%
DJIA 12805.54 0.6%
S&P 500 1363.67 0.7%
Nasdaq 2910.04 0.5%
China A50 7659.38 0.5%

Corporate News

Corporate Announcements

Introduction:
Bumitama Agri has entered into a conditional sales and purchase agreement to acquire land bank through an acquisition of the entire equity interest in plantation company PT. Tanah Tani Lestari.

Results announcements:
Thu 19 Jul: Keppel Corp 2Q12
Wed 25 Jul: Biosensors 1Q13, SIA 1Q13
Fri 27 Jul: SGX 4Q12
Mon 1 Aug: Cosco 2Q12, CapitaLand 2Q12
Thu 2 Aug: SembCorp Marine 2Q12, OCBC 2Q12
Tue 7 Aug: UOB 2Q12
Tue 14 Aug: IndoFood Agri 2Q12

Ex-dividend dates:
Mon 6 Aug: SingTel ($0.09 final)

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