SGX Stocks and Warrants

SGX - Securities Turnover Down, while Derivatives Resilient

kimeng
Publish date: Mon, 09 Jul 2012, 09:22 AM
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Warrants Highlight

SGX - Securities Turnover Down, while Derivatives Resilient

Code Name Type Expiry Exercise Price
P9HW SGX MB eCW120904 Call 04-Sep-12 6.50
Q0BW SGX MB ePW121203 Put 03-Dec-12 6.00

The Singapore Exchange reported its June trading figures last Wednesday. Its average daily turnover (ADT) was down 14% MoM/21% YoY in June, while derivatives continued to be relatively resilient in June, up 11%YoY but marginally down on a MoM basis. SGX is scheduled to report its full-year FY12 results on 27 July after market close.

Securities ADT fell 14% MoM/21% YoY to reach S$1.0bn in June, largely led by non-Singapore stocks, down 35% YoY, while Singapore stocks fell by 29%YoY. On a quarterly basis, ADT for calendar 2Q12 is down 22%QoQ. Uncapped trades, often viewed as a proxy for higher margin trades from retail participation, improved in June, up 6ppt MoM and 2ppt YTD.

Average derivatives volume of 314K contracts per day was up 11% YoY but marginally down by 2% MoM.

4Q12 earnings preview. Macquarie Equities Research (MER) expects 4Q12 net income of S$77m, down 3% YoY/1% QoQ, which puts it slightly ahead of consensus. In MER’s view, the lacklustre performance in the securities segment will be partially offset by a more resilient performance in SGX’s derivatives business and a tighter cost discipline.

Maintain Outperform rating on SGX. Given the stock’s defensiveness and balance sheet strength, MER thinks SGX is attractive despite the likelihood for weak market sentiment in the short term. SGX has continued to outperform its peers YTD and trades 6% below its long-term average at 22.5x FY12e PER and offers a 4% dividend yield.

Key risks:
1) Macro risks – Volume deceleration could cause a long-term derating;
2) M&A risks –Management may be pressured to grow inorganically if volume growth fails to make any significant headway.

* Excerpt from MER report dated 4th July.

Singapore Market Wrap

Joint stimulus plans backfire?

STI added gains from Monday to Friday on hopes of monetary easing from the Fed and the ECB. On Thursday, the market heard news of economic stimulus by central banks- both the People's Bank of China and the ECB cut interest rates consecutively while the Bank of England expanded its stimulus programme to GBP375bil. Investors had mixed sentiments regarding the joint effort by central banks as some felt that the monetary loosening may fail again unless the governments can come up with more substantial measures to address the region's longer term problems.

HSI ended Friday flat but managed to climb 1.8% week on week (wow) while Singapore had a better week, ending at 2978.55, up 3.5% wow.

Call STI 2950MBeCW120831 (QE8W) exercise level 2,950.*
Put STI 2850MBePW120831 (QE9W) exercise level 2,850.*

Singapore home prices still resilient
The Straits Times reported that the Singapore property market had "rents and resale prices edging up despite global economic uncertainty". In addition, the earlier than expected rate cut by China's central bank on benchmark lending rates from 6.31% to 6.00%, is set to boost the outlook for developers in Chinese property.

Chinese developer Yanlord ended the week at $1.335, up 9.0% wow.
CapitaLand which has more than 34% of its assets in China ended the week $2.98, up 10.4% wow.

Call warrant Yanlord MBeCW121204 (QY2W) exercise price $1.20.*
Call warrant Yanlord MBeCW121002 (P8LW) exercise price $1.40.*

Call warrant CapitalaMBeCW120904 (QC5W) exercise price $2.979.*
Put warrant CapitalaMBePW121004 (P5OW) exercise price $2.979.*

Oil prices affected by sanctions on Iran
A week has passed since the oil sanctions imposed on Iran by the European Union took full effect. In the past week, oil prices have trended up and stayed above US$80. However, there was a pullback on Friday due to some strength in the US dollar as well as concerns over an economic slowdown. Investors have been rather fickle minded in the short term, with the market bears selling out at the earliest hints of economic deterioration. Oil prices have a significant influence over companies like Sembcorp Marine and Keppel Corp as sustained high oil prices are likely to increase orders for rig builders.

Keppel Corp ended the week at $10.92, up 6.2% wow.
Sembcorp Marine ended the week at $5.05, up 5.6% wow.

Call warrant KepCorp MBeCW121001 (QF0W) exercise price $10.50.*
Call warrant KepCorp MBeCW121101 (Q0AW) exercise price $11.50.*
Put warrant KepCorp MBePW121203 (Q0IW) exercise price $10.00.*

Call warrant SembMar MBeCW120905 (P1FW) exercise price $5.058.*
Long dated call warrant SembMar MBeCW130603 (M8NW) exercise price $5.59.*

Overnight Market Wrap

Lousy employment data led markets

Last Friday, investors saw a disappointing US and European session. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell more than 2% while the S&P slid 0.9%, erasing gains for the week. This performance came the day after joint efforts by central banks.

Investors were left unconvinced by Friday's non farm payroll (NFP) as the US indices gapped down at opening and stayed in the red throughout the session. Labour data came in soft as NFP increased by 80K, missing estimates of 100K. Meanwhile, jobless rates remained sticky at 8.2%. According to Bloomberg, there is space for more hiring but companies remain hesitant because of the country's gloomy economic outlook.

Yield on benchmark 10 yr treasury notes declined to 1.55%.

Overnight Markets

Indices Last Change
STI 2978.55 0.2%
HSI 19800.64 -0.0%
DJIA 12772.47 -1.0%
S&P 500 1354.68 -0.9%
Nasdaq 2937.33 -1.3%
China A50 7822.92 1.1%


Corporate News

Corporate Announcements

Results announcements:
Thu 19 Jul: Keppel Corp 2Q12
Wed 25 Jul: Biosensors 1Q13, SIA 1Q13
Fri 27 Jul: SGX 4Q12
Thu 2 Aug: SembCorp Marine 2Q12

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