• The STI gained 3.6% in October, producing its strongest monthly price gain since the 7.3% gain in March 2021, and strongest performance for the month of October since the 4.8% gain in October 2017. This brings the total return of the STI for the first 10 months of 2021 to 15.7%.
   
• Overarching market drivers in October included global progress in containing COVID-19, the global growth outlook remaining largely intact for 2021 and 2022, while rising commodity prices, supply disruptions and the continued local focus on strategic corporate restructuring also provided market cues.
   
• Proportionate to month-end market capitalisation, within the STI, Sembcorp Industries, Jardine Cycle & Carriage, City Developments, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings and Venture Corporation saw the highest net institutional inflows in October, while averaging 7.9% price gains.

In October, the Straits Times Index (“STI”) gained 3.6%, finishing the month at 3,198.17. This was the STI’s strongest monthly price gain since the 7.3% gain in March 2021, and strongest October since the 4.8% gain in October 2017. The FTSE ASEAN All-Share Index also gained 3.9% over the month, outpacing the broader Asia Pacific, which declined 0.9%, weighed by Japan stocks. Globally, the FTSE All World Index gained 4.2% during October, led by auto manufacturers, energy, technology, consumer cyclical and lodging stocks in addition to REITs. Overall, the total market capitalisation of Singapore’s listed stocks increased 3.0% over the month, from S$887.9 billion to S$914.2 billion.

Overarching market drivers in October included global progress in containing COVID-19, the global growth outlook remaining largely intact for 2021 and 2022, while rising commodity prices, supply disruptions and the continued local focus on strategic restructuring also provided market cues.

On the COVID-19 front, in October, the 7-day rolling average of daily new confirmed global COVID-19 cases continued September’s decline, ending the month at 430,000 cases a day, down from above 650,000 cases per day in mid-August. The key test for November will be for this trend to continue, with the objective of the 7-day rolling average breaking below the 360,000 cases per day level, a key level last reached in mid-to-late June and mid-to-late February. The data provided by ourworldindata.org also shows that the in mid-October the 7-day rolling average of daily confirmed COVID-19 deaths reached lows not seen since early November 2020. However, gaps in vaccination rates across countries remain, so much so that in its October World Economic Outlook, the IMF noted over half of the countries in the world are not on track to reach the goal of vaccinating 4% of their population by the end of 2021.

While the IMF October Outlook marginally trimmed its global growth outlook for 2021 to 5.9% (from 6.0% in July), the above average 4.9% growth rate for 2022 was kept intact. Similarly, Singapore GDP is expected to grow between 6.0% and 7.0% in 2021, and remain above trend in 2022.

Inflation expectations driven by rising commodity prices and supply disruptions also impacted the STI in October through its largest sector, the Banks. DBS Group Holdings, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation and United Overseas Bank averaged a 3.4% gain in October. Their average gains for the month were as high as 4.3% as of the 27 Oct Asia close, before global banks declined 1.3% on global inflation concerns that pushed 2-year UST yields higher, resulting in the 2/10-year UST yield curve flattening by close to 10 basis points by the last session of the month.

With auto manufacturers also leading global stocks in October, Jardine Cycle & Carriage led the STI in October with a 16.1% gain and S$50 million of net institutional inflow. Also in-line with global trends, Hongkong Land gained 14.0% over the month, while outside the STI, among the most actives, Rex International Holding gained 61.9% as the price of Brent Crude Oil increased from US$78.52 to US$84.38.

Overall the STI was recipient to S$295 million of net institutional inflow in October, with 18 of the 30 stocks seeing net inflows, and 12 stocks seeing net outflows. Within the STI, proportionate to month-end market capitalisation, Sembcorp Industries, Jardine Cycle & Carriage, City Developments, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings and Venture Corporation saw the highest net institutional inflows in October, while averaging 7.9% price gains. The next five STI stocks that saw the highest net institutional inflows proportionate to month-end market capitalisation averaged a 4.0% gain, similar to the STI’s 4.1% gain.

Source: SGX, Refinitiv, Bloomberg (Data as of 29 October 2021)

Meanwhile, Singapore Exchange, Keppel DC REIT, ComfortDelGro Corporation, Mapletree Industrial Trust and Mapletree Logistics Trust saw the highest net institutional outflows in October while average a 1.1% decline in price.     

The seven technology stocks among Singapore’s most traded 60 stocks so far this year were mixed, with performances ranging from a 4.7% gain for Venture Corporation to a 9.4% decline for Nanofilm Technologies International. This coincided with a report on 26 Oct that Singapore’s Industrial Production declined 2.8% in September from August. Nonetheless, precision engineering and the electronics cluster have been Singapore’s strongest manufacturing segments over the first three quarters of 2021, and the aforementioned seven technology stocks averaged a 44.9% total return over the past 10 months, with their median total return at 23.7%.

The October performances and net institutional flows of the 60 most traded Singapore stocks which includes the 30 STI stocks (in Bold) are tabled below.

Source: SGX, Refinitiv, Bloomberg (Data as of 29 October 2021)