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Top 3 Commodity's Technical Analysis

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Publish date: Tue, 10 Jun 2014, 04:54 PM
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GOLD
The impact of the positive jobs data released last week can be seen on gold. There are expectations that the gold prices will decline in coming days. The prices was flat yesterday and ended 0.05% day declining margin and closed at $1251.6/oz. The inflation can move higher indicating that the monetary policy winding will be done soon which will result in correction of gold prices.
Forecast
Gold continue to trade in a range .The trading range can be between 1246-1270 as the recent trend in bullion prices are lower .
SILVER
Base metals largely underperformed the last week, still silver managed to perform well .It is still expected to continue the weaker trend and the gold to silver ratio is observed at 66 mark and might trade in a range and may start moving higher gradually .Silver traded marginally higher yesterday and 0.3% increase has been observed diverging from weakness in gold prices. The dollar index rose by 0.3%yesterday, strength in base metals complex led to gains in silver prices.
Forecast
The silver can trade marginally higher and the range bound movement can be observed.
CRUDE
The oil prices increased by 1$ on Monday because of the strong Chinese data and US data which indicates that the growth in economy is healthy and demand is also high .The positive data boosted an oil market already in loss of crude exports from Libya, where violence and civil turmoil have cut oil output by more than 1 million barrels a day .The china's export have come more than the forecast it is due to the firmer global demand which is rising 7% from a year earlier and increased 9% by April .
Forecast
The up movement in prices can be observed in the coming session .It is also expected to range of 103-105.30 .
TODAY'S DAY RANGE
COMMODITYS1S2R1R2
GOLD1248124012601265
SILVER18.8018.7019.1019.30
CRUDE104103.30105.20105.80
 DAY'S HIGHLIGHT
  • Euro Zone Sentix Investor Confidence declined to 8.5-mark in June.
  • US API crude oil inventories expected to fall by 1.5 mn bbl. - Reuters.
  • China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.5 percent in May.
  • Japan's Tertiary Industry Activity declined by 5.4 percent in April.
  • Probe into Qingdau port pushed the red metal lower.
  • UK's BRC Retail Sales Monitor grew by 0.5 percent in last month.
Data Update for 10th JUNE 2014
TimeCurrencyImpact ActualForecastPrevious
1:45amCHF Unemployment Rate3.20%3.20%3.20%
1:59amJPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y24.10% 48.70%
2:45amEUR French Industrial Production m/m0.30%0.30%-0.40%
3:15amCHF Retail Sales y/y 2.20%3.00%
4:00amEUR Italian Industrial Production m/m 0.40%-0.50%
4:30amGBPHIGHManufacturing Production m/m 0.40%0.50%
 GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.40%-0.10%
TentativeGBP 10-y Bond Auction  2.82|1.7
7:30amUSD NFIB Small Business Index 96.195.2
10:00amGBP NIESR GDP Estimate  1.00%
 USD JOLTS Job Openings 4.04M4.01M
 USD Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.60%1.10%
7:50pmJPY BSI Manufacturing Index 14.112.5
 JPY CGPI y/y 4.10%4.10%
8:30pmAUDHIGHWestpac Consumer Sentiment  -6.80%
11th-14thNZD REINZ HPI m/m  0.10%
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