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Singapore Stock Recommendation - Olam "Neutral"
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Publish date: Fri, 07 Dec 2012, 05:17 PM
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Macquarie downgraded Olam International Ltd to 'neutral' from 'outperform' and cut its target price to S$1.60 from S$2.40, saying some of the Singapore commodities firm's projects are taking longer-than-expected to come through.
Olam shares were up 1.4 percent at S$1.47 on Friday. But the stock has fallen more than 15 percent since short-seller Muddy Waters launched a scathing attack on the company's accounting, debt and investment projects on Nov. 19.
"While we disagree with Muddy Waters' assertion that Olam stands on the brink of insolvency, we do take their point that some of Olam's new upstream and midstream projects have lagged expectations. In fact, as a group, the new projects had already missed our expectations in 2012 fiscal year," Macquarie said.
Muddy Waters discovered that Olam's greenfield Nigerian sugar mill has been postponed indefinitely, Macquarie said, adding that this has been confirmed by Olam. A key urea project in Gabon also remains uncertain, Macquarie said.
Macquarie said its earnings estimates are 20-25 percent below consensus for 2013-2014 fiscal years.
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