EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair fell hard during the course of the session on Wednesday, slashing through the 1.33 level finally. With that, it appears that the market is ready to continue briny much lower, probably heading to the 1.30 level before it's all said and done. Ultimately, we believe that rallies on short-term charts should offer selling opportunities, at least until we get above the 1.3350 level again. Until then, we are "sell only" in the EUR/USD pair, and therefore not even thinking about buying at this point in time. We also believe that a break of the lows has more selling pressure added to the marketplace.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the day on Wednesday, but as you can see turned back around just below the 1.67 handle. By doing so, we formed a shooting star, and it does seem that the British pound is destined to head to the 1.65 level, as it is such a massive support level based upon the longer-term charts. On the other hand, if we managed to break above the 1.70 handle, we could very easily head to the 1.68 level. In the meantime, expect a lot of volatility.
AUD/USD
The USD/JPY pair broke out very strongly during the session on Wednesday, as the Federal Reserve Minutes came out during the day suggesting that quite a few members of the FMOC are considering that we are perhaps closer to raising rates than originally thought in the United States. With the Bank of Japan most certainly in a very soft monetary policy mode, it makes perfect sense of this pair did in fact go higher. The 103 level of course was significantly resistive, so the fact that we broke out above there really isn't a big surprise but it does mean something.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair broke out very strongly during the session on Wednesday, as the Federal Reserve Minutes came out during the day suggesting that quite a few members of the FMOC are considering that we are perhaps closer to raising rates than originally thought in the United States. With the Bank of Japan most certainly in a very soft monetary policy mode, it makes perfect sense of this pair did in fact go higher. The 103 level of course was significantly resistive, so the fact that we broke out above there really isn't a big surprise but it does mean something.
Data Update for 21st Aug 2014
Time | Currency | Impact | Particular | Forecast | Previous |
4:15am | NZD | Visitor Arrivals m/m | -0.30% | ||
5:30am | AUD | CB Leading Index m/m | 0.20% | ||
7:05am | JPY | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 51.7 | 50.5 | |
7:15am | CNY | High | HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI | 51.5 | 51.7 |
8:30am | NZD | Credit Card Spending y/y | 7.00% | ||
11:30am | CHF | Trade Balance | 1.91B | 1.38B | |
12:30pm | EUR | High | French Flash Manufacturing PMI | 47.9 | 47.8 |
EUR | French Flash Services PMI | 50.3 | 50.4 | ||
1:00pm | EUR | High | German Flash Manufacturing PMI | 51.8 | 52.4 |
EUR | German Flash Services PMI | 55.5 | 56.7 | ||
1:30pm | EUR | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 51.4 | 51.8 | |
EUR | Flash Services PMI | 53.6 | 54.2 | ||
2:00pm | GBP | High | Retail Sales m/m | 0.40% | 0.10% |
GBP | Public Sector Net Borrowing | 10.1B | 9.5B | ||
Tentative | GBP | 10-y Bond Auction | 2.70|1.8 | ||
2:00pm | GBP | High | Retail Sales m/m | 0.40% | 0.10% |
7:15pm | USD | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 55.7 | 55.8 | |
7:30pm | EUR | Consumer Confidence | -9 | -8 | |
USD | High | Existing Home Sales | 5.01M | 5.04M | |
USD | High | Philly Fed Manufacturing Index | 20.3 | 23.9 | |
USD | CB Leading Index m/m | 0.60% | 0.30% | ||
8:00pm | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 78B | ||
Day 1 | ALL | Jackson Hole Symposium |