I’ll never forget this chat.
It was March 2020, just before Singapore's Circuit Breaker lockdown. I was sitting across from my good friend, John (not his real name) at Starbucks, tucked away at the corner seat by the window, overlooking Suntec City's Fountain of Wealth.
The world felt tense. The air was a mix of roasted coffee beans, fear and a tinge of adventure.
I said to John: “Look, it's not interest rates that kills you, it's the margin calls."
John wanted to invest on margin with the current panic selling. This means borrowing money from stock brokers to buy stocks. I advised against it. Why?
The reality with excessive leverage is this: It's not the thousand little cuts that kill us. It's the sudden, violent punches of the stock market that will wipe us out. I'd avoid excessive leverage.
If we’re going to enjoy safe, secured compounding returns from my investments, We’ve to first survive the sudden, violent punches of the stock market.
And the secret to surviving the savage market today is to have staying power.
Since 1928, the stock market has gone through 22 bear markets. This includes the most recent COVID-19 pandemic and Ukraine War. However, over this last century, the stock market has also recovered - and gone even higher.
This was despite war, natural disasters and financial crises.
What's more, the average bear market lasts less than a year - around 340 days.