Asean Investor

AEC 2015: Are we ready yet?

ASEAN_Investor
Publish date: Tue, 06 Aug 2013, 04:30 PM
Marc Djandji, CFA is the Editor-in-Chief of The ASEAN Insider, a subscription-based monthly investment newsletter committed to finding compelling investments backed by powerful structural trends in Southeast Asia. He is also a co-Founder and Partner of ASEAN Strategy Group Ltd., an independent investment banking boutique focusing on cross-border M&A and corporate finance advisory for companies in the small to mid-market segment in Southeast Asia.

EVEN before the Asean Economic Community (AEC) is officially launched, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) is already making gains from economic cooperation and from the recognition accorded to it by other countries and economic blocs.

The Asean Secretariat said that as of end-March, about 78 percent of measures due under the AEC Blueprint, including the Asean Comprehensive Investment Agreement, have been implemented, with significant gains across pillars.

aec

These gains included the per-capita income in the region, which had risen from $2,267 to $3,759 in 2012; total trade of Asean, which had grown by 16.8 percent from $2.05 trillion in 2010 to $2.4 trillion in 2011; and intra-Asean trade, which had risen by 15.1 percent from $520 billion in 2010 to $598 billion in 2011. The Asean continued to attract foreign investments, generating a record $114 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in 2011, a 23-percent increase from $92 billion the year before.

True, integration will formalize and strengthen cooperation among Asean members, especially when dealing with countries outside the bloc or with other economic blocs, such as the European Union.

However, competition among Asean members will continue. The liberalization of the region's trade and investment activities will allow some members to utilize their comparative advantages over their peers.

It's all right if every country in the bloc has the same degree of industrial development or similar environments for doing business; that would make for a truly level playing field.

What makes me apprehensive is our standing, compared to other major Asean economies, as well as our competitiveness vis-à-vis other members of the bloc.

The 2013 World Competitiveness Yearbook of the Institute for Management and Development ranked the Philippines as No. 38 among 60 economies, up five notches from No. 43 in 2012.

Among the major Asean economies, the Philippines was ahead only of Indonesia, which ranked No. 39. Singapore was ranked fifth, followed by Malaysia at No.15 and Thailand at No. 27.

The Philippines also improved its ranking in the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report, which covered 144 countries; it ranked No. 65 in the 2012 to 2013 list. Five other Asean members, however, ranked higher: Singapore (No. 2), Malaysia (No. 25), Brunei Darussalam (No. 28), Thailand (No. 38) and Indonesia (No. 49).

The country's competitiveness ranking translates to its performance in several global economic activities. Take tourism, for example. According to the United Nations World Tourism Organization, 84.55 million international tourists visited the Asean region in 2012. Of the total, 25.03 million went to Malaysia, 22.35 million to Thailand, 8.04 million to Indonesia, 6.85 million to Vietnam and only 4.273 million to the Philippines.

The country also failed to attract a significant share of the $111.3 billion in FDI that flowed into Southeast Asia in 2012. Based on the 2013 World Investment Report, released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, the Philippines received only $2.79 billion in FDI last year.

The bulk of the investments went to Singapore ($56.65 billion), followed by Indonesia ($19.8 billion), Malaysia ($10 billion), Thailand ($8.6 billion) and Vietnam ($8.3 billion). Myanmar, which recently started opening up its economy, received $2.24 billion, nearly matching that of the Philippines.

We are also behind other major Asean economies in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Statistics from the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) show that Singapore has the highest GDP per capita at $60,688 (international dollars at purchasing power parity).

Brunei was second ($51,760), followed by Malaysia ($16,051), Thailand ($8,646), Indonesia ($4,636) and the Philippines ($4,119).

Based on these comparisons, we will be facing tough competition. Nevertheless, I don't believe the Philippines will be at the tail-end.

Ours is an economy that has survived global and regional crises, with better results than bigger and more developed economies. We also have a lot of strengths that, if properly harnessed, will make us a tough competitor and major player when the AEC becomes a reality in 2015.

By Manny B. Villar

The post AEC 2015: Are we ready yet? appeared first on Asean Investment | Marc Djandji Blog.

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