Gold Silver Crude Technical Trading Anlysis

Alex Gray

Publish date: Tue, 20 May 2014, 08:10 PM

GOLD

Gold rose initially during the session on Monday, but found enough resistance above the $1300 level to turn things back around and form a shooting star. The shooting star of course suggests that the market could fall bit from here, but we see a massive amount of support at the $1280 level, and as a result we are not willing to sell at this point.
Forecast
Gold price are expected to trade in the range of 1280 to 1300.
SILVER

Silver tried to rally during the session on Monday, but as you can see found far too much in the way of resistance. The $19.75 level offered that resistance, and it appears that we are currently trying to bounce back and forth in the same general area, but ultimately forming a shooting star. That being the case, we feel that this market does have a little bit more downside to it, but the $19 level should be massively supportive. With that being the case, really there's not a whole lot we can do in this market at the moment and prefer to stay on the sidelines.
Forecast
Silver prices are expected to trade consolidate in a range of 19.00 to 19.700.
CRUDE

Crude rose during the session on Monday, breaking to the $103 level at one point during the day. However, we did pull back a little bit by the end of the day in order to show the area to still be slightly resistive. That being the case, it appears that the market will continue to go higher though, although we obviously have a barrier to break above. Looking to the short-term charts, we believe that pullbacks will in fact offer buying opportunities going forward, and as a result we fully anticipate this market going to the $104 level, which of course was the most recent high.
Forecast
Crude oil prices could trade sideways from 101.50 to 102.95.
TODAY'S DAY RANGE

COMMODITY	S1	S2	R1	R2
GOLD	1291	1283	1307	1315
SILVER	19.36	19.20	19.70	19.95
CRUDE	101.6	101	102.85	103.50

DAY'S HIGHLIGHT

LME Copper inventories are at their lowest level since Sept 2008.
US Dollar Index fell by 0.1 percent in yesterday's trading session.
US API crude oil inventories is expected to gain by 1 mn bbl - Reuters

Data Update for 20^th May 2014

Time	Currency	Impact	Particular	Actual	Forecast	Previous
5:30am	AUD		CB Leading Index m/m	0.00%		0.20%
7:00am	AUD	High	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
8:45am	AUD		RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
10:00am	JPY		All Industries Activity m/m	1.50%	1.60%	-1.10%
11:30am	EUR		German PPI m/m		0.00%	-0.30%
2:00pm	GBP	High	CPI y/y		1.70%	1.60%
	GBP		PPI Input m/m		0.00%	-0.60%
	GBP		RPI y/y		2.60%	2.50%
	GBP		Core CPI y/y		1.80%	1.60%
	GBP		HPI y/y		10.70%	9.10%
	GBP		PPI Output m/m		0.20%	0.20%
6:00pm	CAD		Wholesale Sales m/m		0.40%	1.10%
10:00pm	USD		FOMC Member Plosser Speaks
10:30pm	USD		FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
11:00pm	GBP		MPC Member Bean Speaks

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