COMEX Technical Analysis Report

Alex Gray

Publish date: Mon, 24 Mar 2014, 06:48 PM

GOLD

Gold climbed higher overnight to open at 1338.00/1339.00. It moved up marginally to a high of 1339.25/1340.25 as the Euro appreciated against the Dollar. The metal then declined to a low of 1333.00/1334.00 as global equities rebounded with the S&P setting a new intra-day high. It traded within range for most of the day to close at 1335.00/1336.00.

Gold had a bearish outside week, closing lower at 1335 and completely retracing last week's gains. This is a potential reversal warning. The support level to watch is 1312, the 38.2% retracement of the 2014 uptrend. We have been bullish, but would revisit our view should 1312 be broken to the downside. Resistance is at the weekly high of 1392.Gold recovered its losses to settle flat as the dollar edged lower, though the market posted weekly drop following the Fed's latest meet.An escalation of U.S. sanctions against Russia over the crisis in Crimea kept investors cautious, giving support to gold.SPDR gold trust holding gained by 4.19 tonnes i.e. 0.52% to 816.97 tonnes from 812.78 tonnes.

SILVER

Silver was relatively unchanged overnight, opening at 20.41/20.46. It rose to a high of 20.45/20.50 before following gold lower to close at the session low of 20.28/20.33.

Silver had a bearish week, closing at 20.28. The metal continues to trade under the downtrend that has been in place since April 2011. Support is at the base of the consolidation that has been in place since June 2013, at the 18.20 level. We are neutral while silver continues to trade within this consolidation range. The gold-silver ratio is trading higher this week at 65.79. It is well supported from the uptrend, which currently comes in at 61.89. Resistance is at the double top in the 67.47 to 67.56 area. Silver remained under pressure as the dollar firmed after the U.S. Federal Reserve hinted at an interest rate hike in the first half of 2015.The central bank said that it would reduce its monthly bond buying program by an additional $10 billion to a total of $55 billion a month.The Fed also updated its forward guidance, discarding the 6.5% unemployment threshold for considering when to increase borrowing costs.

COPPER

On the week, Comex copper prices ended down 0.02%, as ongoing concerns over the health of China's economy dampened demand for growth-linked assets.

Attention now shifts to the release of HSBC's March China Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing, due Monday. The Asian nation is the world's largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.According to the CFTC, net copper shorts totaled 21,965 contracts as of last week, up 24.5% from net shorts of 10,473 in the preceding week. Copper settled flat due to the weak outlook toward Chinese growth and lack of key market moversChina's copper market will see a surplus of 400,000 tons in 2014 through a rise in copper production as imports surpass growth.A stronger RMB which eased concerns over China's copper demand was also behind the higher copper prices.

CRUDE

The HSBC data for March showed a drop to 48.1, compared to a forecast of 48.7 expected and to a final of 48.5 for the previous month. A figure below 50 implies contraction with the the latest number part of a string of disappointing China data suggesting a deepening economic slowdown at the start of 2014."The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI reading for March suggests that China's growth momentum continued to slow down. Weakness is broadly based with domestic demand softening further," said HSBC chief China economist Qu Hongbin.

"We expect Beijing to launch a series of policy measures to stabilize growth. Likely options include lowering entry barriers for private investment, targeted spending on subways, air cleaning and public housing, and guiding lending rates lower."On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in May traded at $99.20 a barrel Crude Oil, down 0.26%. Crude oil settled 0.57% higher, or 56 cents, at $99.46 a barrel, last week on speculation over the fallout from the Ukraine crisis and amid indications the U.S. economy is improving.Investors continued to monitor events in the Ukraine, where tension over moves by neighboring Russia in the Crimean region have underpinned prices.The political standoff between the West and Russia following the annexation of Crimea escalated after the U.S. imposed harsher sanctions on Moscow. The European Union also agreed to wider sanctions against Russia.Crude oil prices stayed weaker in Asia on Monday after the China HSBC Flash Purchasing Managers Index for March unexpectedly fell, placing demand doubts in the market about the world's second largest crude oil importer.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1320	1313	1343	1350
SILVER	20.14	20.00	20.42	20.64
COPPER	2.9696	2.9186	3.0206	3.0473
CRUDE	98.39	97.32	100.39	101.32

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.15P.M	Flash Manufacturing PMI	57.1	56.6	MEDIUM

Flash Manufacturing PMI

Source	Markit(latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around 3 weeks into the current month;
Next Release	Apr 24, 2014
FF Notes	Data is given to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Flash release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart - Flash and Final. The Flash release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact. Source first released in May 2012;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy;
Derived Via	Survey of about 600 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;
Acro Expand	Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);

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