GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE Commodity Technical Analysis: 12 Nov

Alex Gray

Publish date: Tue, 12 Nov 2013, 05:56 PM

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1276	1271	1287	1293
SILVER	21.19	21.10	21.41	21.54
COPPER	3.2431	3.2270	3.2756	3.2920
CRUDE	94.37	93.60	95.64	96.14

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

Silver prices fell to a three-and-a-half week low on Tuesday, as ongoing expectations that the Federal Reserve will start to unwind its stimulus program by the end of the year weighed.

Gold futures traded near the lowest level in almost four-weeks on Tuesday, amid speculation the Federal Reserve will begin tapering its asset purchase program at its December policy meeting.

Crude oil futures edged lower on Tuesday, as a broadly stronger U.S. dollar and ongoing uncertainty over the duration of the Federal Reserve's stimulus program weighed.

SILVER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, silverfutures for December delivery traded at USD21.26 a troy ounce during European morning trade, down 0.3%. Silver prices fell to a session low of USD21.23 a troy ounce earlier, the weakest level since October 17. The December contract ended 1.57% lower to settle at USD21.31 a troy ounce on Friday.

Silver also breached a support level this week, closing at 21.30 and taking out 21.67 in its wake, which was the 50% retracement of the most recent uptrend. Support is at the last major low, 20.49, while 21.67 should now act as resistance. A breach of support at 20.49 opens up a retracement to the 2013 low of 18.23.
Silver ended with gains due to weak rupee despite renewed uncertainty over when Fed will scale back its stimulus measures.
The jobs growth was even more surprising as it came in a month when a budget standoff in Washington forced a 16-day government shutdown.
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 53.93 tonnes to 10443.82 tonnes from 10497.75 tonnes.

GOLD
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery traded at USD1,281.00 a troy ounce, down 0.01%, in Asia.
Gold prices hit a session low of USD1,278.50 a troy ounce and high of USD1,288.40 a troy ounce on Monday in New York.

Gold had a bearish week, closing lower at 1285 and breaking support at the Fibonacci convergence area between 1301 and 1307. These levels were the 50% retracement of the long-term (2008 to 2011) uptrend, and 50% retracement of the July to August 2013 uptrends, respectively. This area should now act as resistance, while support comes in at the last major low at 1251. A breach of 1251 would be very bearish, as it would signal that gold's downtrend off its 1921 high in 2011, is not over. The breach of 1251 opens up the 2013 low of 1180, then 1155, the 61.8% retracement of the long-term uptrend. The 1155 level is the ultimate technical target of the correction of the long-term uptrend.

Gold gains as rupee weakness supported prices despite speculation Fed could soon start scaling back its monetary stimulus.
The U.S. central bank could start cutting back on its $85 billion monthly bond purchases as early as next month.

Gold's recent drop to below $1,300 has failed to attract demand in Asia as buyers wait on the sidelines on expectations that prices will weaken further.

COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.263 a pound during European morning trade, up 0.3%.

Copper prices traded in a range between USD3.257 a pound, the session low and a daily high of USD3.276 a pound.
The December contract settled 0.17% higher on Friday to end at USD3.254 a pound.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.222 a pound, the low from November 6 and resistance at USD3.308 a pound, the high from November 4.
Copper futures edged higher on Monday, after upbeat Chinese factory output data boosted future demand expectations from the world's largest copper consumer.

Copper edged higher after upbeat Chinese factory output data boosted future demand expectations from the world's largest copper consumer.
China's production of refined copper rose 2.9 percent month-on-month to a second straight monthly record in October.
Market players now looked ahead to the outcome of a four-day meeting of China's top Communist Party officials on Tuesday.

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in December traded at USD94.95 a barrel, down 0.20%, in Asia. The commodity hit a session low of USD94.12 and a high of USD95.38.

Trade sanctions slapped on Iran because of its alleged nuclear ambitions have taken out more than 1 million barrels per day of oil from the global market and were a centerpiece of weekend talks among the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, Germany, France and Iran.
Crude oil prices slipped in early Asian trade Tuesday, giving back some of the gains overnight after talks between Iran and Western failed to reach an agreement that could ease sanctions on crude exports.

Crude oil edged up after Iran and six world powers failed to reach a deal on Tehran's nuclear programme.

Saudi Arabia produced 9.75 million barrels per day bpd of crude oil in October this year down from 10.1 million bpd in the previous month.
Kuwait's oil minister said he expected OPEC to keep its crude oil output target unchanged at its next meeting.

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