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GOLD / SILVER / COPPER / CRUDE Commodity Technical Outlook: 23rd Oct
Alex Gray
Publish date: Wed, 23 Oct 2013, 08:36 PM
Alex Gray
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Technical Levels
| Support 1 | Support 2 | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 | |
| Gold | 1323 | 1304 | 1352 | 1361 |
| Silver | 22.24 | 21.69 | 23.08 | 23.38 |
| Copper | 3.3026 | 3.2698 | 3.3616 | 3.3878 |
| Crude | 96.08 | 94.67 | 99.21 | 100.62 |
Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
SILVER
Silver jumped alongside gold. Price opened at today's low of 22.14/22.19, before advancing to a high of 22.95/23.00 on the payrolls data. The metal held on to the gains as USD declined, closing the day at 22.77/22.82.
Silver is closing at 22.77. This is the 5th consecutive "Up" day for Silver since it was rejected off of key 20.60. The break of 22.48 confirms a "Double Bottom" off 20.60 and sets measured move at 24.36. We see initial resistance at 23.40 the mid September high.The Gold Silver ratio extended yesterdays technical losses to current 58.89. The break of 59.05 has opened the door for a return to the August low 57.12. Resistance is seen at former trend line support at 59.60. Only a close back above that level would dampen our enthusiasm for the down side.
Silver rose after the disappointing data fuelled expectations that the Fed will delay tapering its stimulus program until next year.
The U.S. Department of Labor said that non-farm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 148,000 in September.
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 23.97 tonnes to 10367.38 tonnes from 10391.35 tonnes.
GOLD
Gold jumped today on the back of weaker than expected US Non farm Payrolls. After opening at 1318.00/1319.00 and touching a low of 1313.00/1314.00 early on, the metal vaulted to a high of 1344.00/1345.00 before noon. Price stayed at this level for the remainder of the session, closing up almost 2% on the day, at 1341.75/1342.75.
Gold is closing higher today at 1341. The metal finally broke key technical pivot of 1330 and has so far traded to 1345. We see today's move as bullish confirmation. The impulsive price action has initial target 1364 (61.8% of 1433 to 1542 move). The measured channel move is seen at 1381. Only a close back below 1330 would neutralize our positive outlook. Gold rose after weak U.S. jobs figures raised expectations the Federal Reserve will keep its stimulus undiminished well into 2014.
The U.S. dollar came under heavy selling pressure following the downbeat jobs report, further boosting gold prices.
SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 6.60 tonnes to 878.32 tonnes.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.300 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.1%.
Copper prices traded in a range between USD3.296 a pound, the daily low and a session high of USD3.310 a pound. The December contract settled 0.14% higher at USD3.303 a pound on Monday.
Copper prices traded in a range between USD3.296 a pound, the daily low and a session high of USD3.310 a pound. The December contract settled 0.14% higher at USD3.303 a pound on Monday.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.271 a pound, the low from October 17 and resistance at USD3.325 a pound, the high from October 16.Copper futures swung between small gains and losses in cautious trade on Tuesday, as investors awaited U.S. employment data later in the day for an indication on how soon the Federal Reserve may start to reduce its stimulus program.
Copper rose as the dollar fell and after the first U.S. jobs report in nearly two months suggested the economy had lost steam.
Fed officials are likely to hold off any decision on scaling back the U.S. central bank's bond buying until the extent of the economic damage.
The premiums paid by buyers over the cash LME copper prices to secure physical metal are still lower than the four-year highs of $220 seen in July.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for December delivery lost 0.11% to USD98.19 per barrel in Asian trading Wednesday. The December contract settled lower by 1.38% at USD98.30 per barrel on Tuesday.
Oil was pressured after the U.S. Labor Department said the U.S. economy added 148,000 jobs in September, well below expectations for an increase of 180,000.
The previous month's figure was revised up to a gain of 193,000 from a previously reported increase of 169,000. July's figure was revised down to 89,000 from 104,000. The unemployment rate in the world's largest economy fell to 7.2% from 7.3%.Oil futures continued trading lower during Wednesday's Asian, following a weak showing Tuesday at the hands of some disappointing data points. .
Crude oil dropped after the U.S. September jobs report disappointed investors and painted a picture of U.S. economy still battling headwinds along its road to recovery.
Saudi Arabia is pumping over 10 million bpd, and plays a key role in balancing oil markets to keep prices stable.
Today Crude oil inventories: EXP: 2.7M PREV: 4.0M. Actual is at 8.00PM.
Global Economic Data
| Time | Data | PRV | EXP | Impact |
| 6.00PM | Import Prices m/m | 0.0% | 0.3% | Medium |
| 6.30PM | HPI m/m | 1.0% | 0.8% | Low |
| 8.00PM | Crude Oil Inventories | 4.0M | 2.7M | Medium |
Import Prices m/m
| Source | Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release) |
| Measures | Change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically; |
| Usual Effect | Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; |
| Frequency | Released monthly, about 13 days after the month ends; |
| Next Release | Nov 13, 2013 |
| FF Notes | This is the earliest government-released inflation data; |
| Why Traders Care | It contributes to inflation for businesses and consumers, especially those who rely heavily on imported goods and services; |
| Also Called | Import Price Index; |
| Source | FHFA (latest release) |
| Measures | Change in the purchase price of homes with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; |
| Usual Effect | Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; |
| Frequency | Released monthly, about 55 days after the month ends; |
| Next Release | Nov 26, 2013 |
| FF Notes | Source began m/m frequency in Mar 2008; |
| Why Traders Care | It's a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity; |
| Acro Expand | House Price Index (HPI); |
Crude Oil Inventories
| Source | Energy Information Administration (latest release) |
| Measures | Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week; |
| Usual Effect | No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications; |
| Frequency | Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends; |
| Next Release | Oct 30, 2013 |
| FF Notes | While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector; |
| Why Traders Care | It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods; |
| Also Called | Crude Stocks, Crude Levels; |
| Acro Expand | Energy Information Administration (EIA); |
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