Technical Levels
| SUPPORT 1 | SUPPORT 2 | RESISTANCE 1 | RESISTANCE 2 |
GOLD | 1273 | 1263 | 1287 | 1302 |
SILVER | 21.17 | 20.98 | 21.50 | 21.63 |
COPPER | 3.2713 | 3.2346 | 3.3368 | 3.3656 |
CRUDE | 101.03 | 99.78 | 103.25 | 104.22 |
GOLDGold opened at 1280.25/1281.25 and dropped to a low of 1268.75/1269.75 by midday. Despite higher equities, the metal rallied in the afternoon to peak at 1282.75/1283.75 on short covering, before closing near the high, at 1282.00/1283.00.
Gold traded nearly unchanged today, closing at 1282, and invalidating yesterday's potential hammer. Support is at the recent 1251 low, and resistance lies between 1301 and 1307, where two Fibonacci retracement levels converge (1301 is the 50% retracement of the 2008 to 2011 uptrend, 1307 is the 50% retracement of the June-August uptrend.) The target on a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern is around 1108.
Gold gained as U.S. lawmakers scrambled to come up with a bipartisan agreement to increase the federal debt ceiling before a Thursday deadline.
Gold premiums in India hit a record $100 an ounce due to a shortage of supplies to meet festival demand.
SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 3.6 tonnes to 885.53 tonnes.
SILVERSilver held up as well, trading higher for the session. Price opened at 21.18/21.23 and touched a low of 21.10/21.15 in early morning. Price recovered in the afternoon alongside gold to a high of 21.41/21.46, before closing the day at 21.35/21.40.
Silver was also nearly unchanged today at 21.35, invalidating yesterday's potential bullish hammer. The past 3 sessions have been "spinning tops", i.e., candles with little to no difference between the open and the close. This is a sign of indecision in the markets. Support is at 19.85, the 76.4% retracement of the last rally, with resistance at 21.67, the 50% retracement level.
The gold-silver ratio continues to drift slightly higher, currently at 60.06. The ratio is overdue for a breakout, as we have seen the last 7 sessions trade inside of the October 7th session in the candlestick charts. The ratio is gaining in bullish momentum; though remains within a consolidation.
Silver rose as markets continued to focus on U.S. budget talks amid growing fears of a potential sovereign default.
Ratings agency Fitch placed its triple-A rating on U.S. on "rating watch negative", saying political impasse has undermined confidence in U.S. economic policy.
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 53.95 tonnes to 10391.35 tonnes from 10445.30 tonnes.
COPPERCopper prices fell to a session low of USD3.266 a pound earlier in the day. The December contract settled 0.14% higher at USD3.307 a pound on Tuesday.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.244 a pound, the low from October 14 and resistance at USD3.315 a pound, the high from October 14.
On Tuesday, Fitch ratings agency placed its AAA-rating on the U.S. on "rating watch negative" and said a downgrade is possible.
Copper futures fell sharply on Wednesday, as the U.S. moved closer to a deadline to raise the national debt ceiling or risk default.
Copper fell as the U.S. moved closer to a deadline to raise the national debt ceiling or risk default.
Fitch ratings agency placed its AAA-rating on the U.S. on "rating watch negative" and said a downgrade is possible.
Trade data showed that inbound Chinese copper shipments totaled 457,847 metric tons last month, the highest since March 2012.
CRUDEOn the
New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for November delivery inched down 0.01% to USD102.28 per barrel in Asian trading Thursday. The November contract settled higher by 1.07% at USD102.29 per barrel on Wednesday.
Oil prices were supported he Federal Reserve reported in its Beige Book, which analyzes current economic conditions, that the U.S. economy expanded at a moderate pace from September into October, though the U.S. central bank said fiscal uncertainty was dampening recovery.
Oil futures traded slightly lower during Thursday Asian session despite news the U.S. Senate has reached a debt deal that will reopen the government there and avert a debt ceiling debacle.
Crude oil gains as it appeared Congress was close to an 11th-hour deal to raise the government's debt ceiling and prevent a default.
Crude oil stocks rose 5.9 million barrels, data from American Petroleum Institute showed, more than double the forecast for a 2.2 million barrel.
Oil traders continued to monitor talks between Western diplomats and Iranian officials in Geneva.
Global Economic Data
Time | Data | Prv | Exp | impact |
6.00 pm | Unemployment Claims | 374K | 357K | STRONG |
7.30 pm | Philly Fed Manufacturing Index | 22.3 | 15.4 | STRONG |
10.15 pm | FOMC Member Evans Speaks | | | MEDIUM |
10.15 pm | FOMC Member George Speaks | | | MEDIUM |
Unemployment Claims
Source | Department of Labor (latest release) |
Measures | The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week; |
Usual Effect | Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; |
Frequency | Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends; |
Next Release | Oct 24, 2013 |
FF Notes | This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes; |
Why Traders Care | Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions; |
Also Called | Jobless Claims, Initial Claims; |
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia(latest release) |
Measures | Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia; |
Usual Effect | Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; |
Frequency | Released monthly, around the middle of the current month; |
Next Release | Nov 21, 2013 |
FF Notes | Above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions; |
Why Traders Care | It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment; |
Acro Expand | Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC); |