Singapore Stock Exchange
Gold, Silver, Copper & Crude Commodity Technical Outlook: 16 October
Alex Gray
Publish date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013, 03:44 PM
Alex Gray
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Technical Levels
| SUPPORT 1 | SUPPORT 2 | RESISTANCE 1 | RESISTANCE 2 | |
| GOLD | 1273 | 1263 | 1290 | 1304 |
| SILVER | 21.10 | 20.85 | 21.50 | 21.80 |
| COPPER | 3.280 | 3.263 | 3.315 | 3.361 |
| CRUDE | 101.00 | 100.30 | 101.53 | 102.50 |
Commodity Contract: S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
Gold dipped overnight to open today's session at 1259.00/1260.00. The metal touched a low of 1255.50/1256.50, before improving to peak at 1277.50/1278.50 by midmorning as equities retreated on weak US manufacturing data. Price traded around this level for the remainder of the session, closing at 1273.50/1274.50.
Gold traded slightly higher today at 1274, after making a new correction low. The price move was a 'hammer' in the candlestick charts, which is a bullish signal after an extended decline, but only if it is confirmed by a higher close tomorrow. The previous support level at 1277 acted as resistance; key support is at 1240.
Gold climbed to the Life time High as Rupee dropped and political tension over Syria increased demand for the precious metal as a store of value.Western powers told the Syrian opposition to expect a strike against Syria President Bashar al-Assad's forces within days
SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed ETF, said its holdings rose 0.10 percent, or 0.90 tonnes, to 921.03 tonnes.
Silver opened the day at the session low of 20.63/20.68. Price improved to a high of 21.25/21.30 on declining equities as investors remained cautious while US lawmakers continue to negotiate a budget deal. Silver closed the day at 21.18/21.23.
Silver closed slightly lower at 21.23, and similar to gold, today's candle may be a hammer, though again it would have to be confirmed by a higher close tomorrow. Support is at 19.85, the 76.4% retracement of the last rally, with resistance at 21.67, the 50% retracement level.
The gold-silver ratio has been grinding higher for the past 3 sessions, currently at 60.03. We have been bearish the ratio, looking for a retracement back to the 57.09 low of Aug 28th. We would stop ourselves out of this position at 62.37, the previous high.
Silver rose as weakness in rupee supported amid growing speculation the U.S. was moving closer to taking military action against Syria's government.An early end to stimulus could hurt precious metals by drawing investors away from non-interest-bearing assets.
Holdings at ishares silver trust gained by 44.99 tonnes to 10600.69 tonnes from 10555.70 tonnes.
On the Comex division of the New YorkMercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.293 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.3%.
Copper prices traded in a range between USD3.288 a pound, the daily low and a session high of USD3.307 a pound.
The December contract settled 1.04% higher at USD3.303 a pound on Monday.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.227 a pound, the low from October 11 and resistance at USD3.321 a pound, the high from October 8.
The December contract settled 1.04% higher at USD3.303 a pound on Monday.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.227 a pound, the low from October 11 and resistance at USD3.321 a pound, the high from October 8.
Copper futures fluctuated between small gains and losses on Tuesday, as investors assessed the potential for an agreement to raise the U.S. debt ceiling and avert default before the October 17 deadline.Copper crossed 500 mark as support seen due to weakness in rupee while a potential western strike on Syria made investor bets more cautious.
The economy of China is showing clear signs of stabilisation, helped by policy support and some improvement in global demand
In the US, recent data on durable goods, single family home sales and business spending on capital goods have been disappointing.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for November delivery rose 0.06% to USD101.27 per barrel in Asian trading Wednesday. The November contract settled lower by 1.17% at USD101.21 per barrel on Tuesday.
Oil futures were likely to find support at USD101.08 a barrel, Monday's low, and resistance at USD102.58 a barrel, Monday's high.
Hopes continued to build on Tuesday that U.S. lawmakers and the White House are closer to agreeing on a spending packaged needed to reopen the government and avoid a default.
Hopes continued to build on Tuesday that U.S. lawmakers and the White House are closer to agreeing on a spending packaged needed to reopen the government and avoid a default.
Oil futures traded modestly higher during Wednesday's Asian despite heightened fears the U.S., the world's largest oil consumer, is inching closer to its first ever sovereign debt default.
Crude oil gained as tensions mounted in Syria, heightening geopolitical and crude oil supply risk in the Middle East.Crude oil prices were also boosted as protesters stopped production at oil fields in Western Libya.
U.S. crude stocks rose last week while gasoline inventories declined and distillate stocks increased, API data showed.
Global Economic Data
| Time | Data | PRV | EXP | Impact |
| 7.30 pm | NAHB Housing Market Index | 58 | 58 | Medium |
| 11.30 pm | Beige Book | Medium |
NAHB Housing Market Index
| Source | NAHB (latest release) |
| Measures | Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed home builders; |
| Usual Effect | Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; |
| Frequency | Released monthly, around the middle of the current month; |
| Next Release | Nov 18, 2013 |
| FF Notes | Above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales, below indicates a negative outlook; |
| Derived Via | Survey of about 900 home builders which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future single-family home sales; |
| Acro Expand | National Association of Home Builders (NAHB); |
Beige Book
| Source | Federal Reserve (latest release) |
| Usual Effect | More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; |
| Frequency | 8 times per year, 2 weeks before each FOMC meeting; |
| Next Release | Dec 4, 2013 |
| FF Notes | This analysis is used by the FOMC to help make their next decision on interest rates. However, it tends to produce a mild impact as the FOMC also receives 2 non-public books - the Green Book and the Blue Book - which are widely believed to be more influential to their rate decision; |
| Derived Via | Anecdotal evidence supplied by the 12 Federal Reserve banks regarding local economic conditions in their district; |
| Also Called | Current Economic Conditions; |
| Acro Expand | Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC); |
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