Singapore Stock Exchange

Gold, Silver, Copper, Crude Commodity Outlook: 3rd Oct 2013

Alex Gray
Publish date: Thu, 03 Oct 2013, 04:39 PM
Alex Gray
0 413
It is the high time to make the most of your surplus money. We offers free real time tips and recommendations for Stock Market, Forex, Commodity, Live Stock Market Data and more. invest with our tips and enjoy bigger profits on your small investment.
simply leave a contact no and email address or take a free trial now.

Technical Levels


SUPPORT 1
SUPPORT 2
RESISTANCE 1
RESISTANCE 2
GOLD
1293
1266
1334
1348
SILVER
21.24
20.59
22.29
22.69
COPPER
3.2695
3.2230
3.3410
3.3660
CRUDE
102.27
100.45
105.07
106.05
Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

Gold recovered today after yesterday's rout as equities dipped amid concerns over continued US government shutdown. The metal opened at 1297.50/1298.50, dipped slightly to a low of 1297.00/1298.00 early on, before advancing to a high of 1323.50/1324.50 by mid-morning. Price traded around this level for the remainder of the session, closing at 1320.00/1321.00. Gold traded higher today, closing at 1320 after yesterday's weak close. Key support is at the 1273 low from August 7. Resistance is at the recent high of 1354.
Gold dropped after U.S. Congress failed to reach an agreement on a budget for the next fiscal year, leading to the first government shutdown in 17 years. The U.S. government began a partial shutdown after lawmakers failed to reach an agreement on a new budget before Monday's midnight deadline. SPDR Gold Trust said its holdings fell 0.46 percent, or 4.2 tonnes, to 901.79 tonnes.
After trading sideways overnight, silver opened today at the session low of 21.25/21.30. Price traded higher to peak at 22.00/22.05 on weak private payroll growth and the continued standoff in the US government. The metal then retreated from its high, closing the day at 21.88/21.93. Silver also traded higher, closing at 21.88 and erasing yesterday's losses. Interim support is at yesterday's low at 20.62. There is resistance in the low-22 area which has been a congestion area since mid-September, and which was previously a big support level from April to June.
 Yesterday we warned of a potential bearish move in the gold-silver ratio, and this was confirmed today with a close lower at 60.45. The lower close is a sell signal, targeting 58.70, the last major low (from September 19). Resistance is at yesterday's high at 62.37. Silver dropped as investors viewed metal as less profitable due to improving data and sentiments that a U.S. government shutdown will be short lived. Prices fell due to technical factors as investors saw little to support the precious metal going forward. Market talk continued to persist that Fed will keep its monthly bond-buying program in place to offset any damage the shutdown may inflict on recovery.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.278 a pound during European morning trade, up 0.1%. Copper prices traded in a range between USD3.249 a pound, the daily low and a session high of USD3.282 a pound. The December contract settled 1.5% lower at USD3.274 a pound on Tuesday.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.249 a pound, Tuesday's low and the weakest level since September 24 and resistance at USD3.337 a pound, Tuesday's high. Copper futures swung between small gains and losses on Wednesday, amid concerns a partial shutdown of the U.S. government will create a drag on fourth quarter U.S. economic growth. Copper edged lower as investors digested disappointing manufacturing data out of China and after U.S. lawmakers missed a deadline to avert a government shutdown. China data showed that the nation's official manufacturing PMI inched up to 51.1 in September from 51.0 in August. Some investors however were worried about the longer-term prospects for the metal, due to a looming supply surplus.
CRUDE 
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for November delivery fell 0.34% to USD103.75 per barrel in Asian trading Thursday. The November contract settle higher by 2.02% at USD104.10 per barrel on Wednesday. The crude oil inventories release showed an increase of 5.5 million barrels for the week ending September 27. This was higher than the consensus of a 2.3 million increase in the number of barrels, reflecting a downturn in consumption. The total number of crude oil inventories in the US was at 363.7 million barrels that week.
In US economic news, the government shutdown carried on for its second day in a row as President Obama refused to budge until a good budget deal is struck. Oil futures traded lower during Thursday's Asian session on some profit-taking following a stellar performance during Wednesday's U.S. session that saw crude soar on news of a potential drop in supply. Energy company TransCanada revealed that it would not be able to finish its work on a part of the Keystone pipeline this October. Crude dropped amid concerns a partial shutdown of the U.S. government will create a drag on fourth quarter U.S. economic growth. Oil has come under downward pressure in the past month as supply has improved, with Libya ramping up output and tensions easing over Syria. U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 5.5 million barrels.
 
Global Economic Data
TIME DATA PRV EXP IMPACT
6.00P.M Unemployment Claims 305K 315K STRONG
7.30P.M ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 58.6 57.2 STRONG
8.00P.M Natural Gas Storage 87B 96B LOW
Unemployment Claims
Source
Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures
The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect
Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency
Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release
Oct 10, 2013
FF Notes
This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders
Care
Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions;
Also Called
Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;
Source
Department of Labor (latest release)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Source
Institute for Supply Management (latest release)
Measures
Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry;
Usual Effect
Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency
Released monthly, on the third business day after the month ends;
Next Release
Nov 5, 2013
FF Notes
Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. Source changed series from unadjusted to seasonally adjusted as of January 2001. Source changed series calculation formula as of Feb 2008;
Why Traders
Care
It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy;
Derived Via
Survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;
Also Called
Services PMI, Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business;
Acro Expand
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);
Natural Gas Storage
Source
Energy Information Administration (latest release)
Measures
Change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week;
Usual Effect
No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications;
Frequency
Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release
Oct 10, 2013
FF Notes
While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector;
Also Called
Nat Gas Stocks, Nat Gas Inventories, Working Gas;
Acro Expand
Energy Information Administration (EIA);

Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 0 of 0 comments

Post a Comment