Singapore Stock Exchange
Gold, Silver, Copper, Crude: Commodity Technical Outlook- 1st Oct
Alex Gray
Publish date: Tue, 01 Oct 2013, 05:18 PM
Alex Gray
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GOLD
Gold declined today as investors braced for a potential US government shutdown. The metal opened at 1331.00/1332.00 and dropped to a low of 1321.50/1322.50 by mid-morning. Price recovered to peak at 1337.00/1338.00 before noon, and closed the day at 1326.00/1327.00.
Gold is closing the month lower at 1327 compared to August 30 close of 1381. This months range of 1292 to 1416 shows as an "inside month" compared to August range of 1273 to 1433. We are neutral at these levels due to the sideways price action. Only a close outside of recent ranges would have the market looking for any medium term moves to 1182 or 1523.
Silver is closing the month at 21.70. This shows as a "down" month from previous close of 23.30. It seems like Silver has corrected the 35.35 to 18.26 move and is now consolidating. We are neutral at current levels on the Monthly chart. Gold Silver Ratio is higher this month to 61.18 compared to August 30 close of 59.25. The powerful down candle of August still over shadows the market. The bounce higher has exceeded our estimates which leaves only July low 62.28 as the last level of resistance after this months high of 61.73. Silver ended with losses as outlook remained weak due to the inevitable tapering of U.S. monetary stimulus. Congress must pass a short-term budget by midnight on Monday in order to avoid the first government shutdown in 17 years. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported earlier that its general business activity index increased to 12.8 in September from 5.0 in August.
Copper dropped for the first time in a four-day period paring its largest quarterly gain since March 2012 amid speculation about a partial shutdown of the US government. The US Congress must approve a spending package by the end of the day to avoid a government shutdown, and waning faith for a last-minute deal steered investors away from oil on fears an ensuing fiscal drag may hamper recovery. China's markets are closed for a week from Tuesday for Golden Week celebrations but the government will still release its September reading for the manufacturing sector on Tuesday. A string of reports from Europe and the US this week could help set the tone for trade. A softer dollar also helped to underpin copper. Copper ended with losses weighed by investors concerns about the prospect of an imminent U.S. government shutdown. China's factory sector grew in September after rising foreign orders made up for a subdued home market. In the United States, weekly jobless claims data last week suggested an improving labour market.
Oil traders appeared to gloss over some decent U.S. data and focused more political haggling in the U.S. that could result in a government closure. In U.S. economic news out Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported earlier that its general business activity index increased to 12.8 in September from 5.0 in August, beating market calls for the index to remain unchanged.
Gold declined today as investors braced for a potential US government shutdown. The metal opened at 1331.00/1332.00 and dropped to a low of 1321.50/1322.50 by mid-morning. Price recovered to peak at 1337.00/1338.00 before noon, and closed the day at 1326.00/1327.00.
Gold is closing the month lower at 1327 compared to August 30 close of 1381. This months range of 1292 to 1416 shows as an "inside month" compared to August range of 1273 to 1433. We are neutral at these levels due to the sideways price action. Only a close outside of recent ranges would have the market looking for any medium term moves to 1182 or 1523. Gold turned lower as mounting worries over a possible U.S. government shutdown kept investors in a cautious mood. Gold could get some support in the near term from the uncertainties around the mid-October deadline to raise the U.S. debt ceiling. Demand for U.S. gold coins fell 81 percent in September on a year-over-year basis, as political turmoil in Syria failed to rekindle retail buying.
Silver held up better than gold. The metal opened the week at 21.57/21.62, traded down to a low of 21.40/21.45 alongside gold, before reversing to reach a high of 22.02/22.07 as equities retreated amid the US budget debate. Silver closed at 21.68/21.72.
Silver is closing the month at 21.70. This shows as a "down" month from previous close of 23.30. It seems like Silver has corrected the 35.35 to 18.26 move and is now consolidating. We are neutral at current levels on the Monthly chart. Gold Silver Ratio is higher this month to 61.18 compared to August 30 close of 59.25. The powerful down candle of August still over shadows the market. The bounce higher has exceeded our estimates which leaves only July low 62.28 as the last level of resistance after this months high of 61.73. Silver ended with losses as outlook remained weak due to the inevitable tapering of U.S. monetary stimulus. Congress must pass a short-term budget by midnight on Monday in order to avoid the first government shutdown in 17 years. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported earlier that its general business activity index increased to 12.8 in September from 5.0 in August.On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.332 a pound during European morning trade, up 0.1%.
Copper dropped for the first time in a four-day period paring its largest quarterly gain since March 2012 amid speculation about a partial shutdown of the US government. The US Congress must approve a spending package by the end of the day to avoid a government shutdown, and waning faith for a last-minute deal steered investors away from oil on fears an ensuing fiscal drag may hamper recovery. China's markets are closed for a week from Tuesday for Golden Week celebrations but the government will still release its September reading for the manufacturing sector on Tuesday. A string of reports from Europe and the US this week could help set the tone for trade. A softer dollar also helped to underpin copper. Copper ended with losses weighed by investors concerns about the prospect of an imminent U.S. government shutdown. China's factory sector grew in September after rising foreign orders made up for a subdued home market. In the United States, weekly jobless claims data last week suggested an improving labour market.On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures fell 0.08% to USD102.25 per barrel in Asian trading Tuesday. The November contract settled lower by 0.52% at USD102.33 per barrel on Monday.
Oil traders appeared to gloss over some decent U.S. data and focused more political haggling in the U.S. that could result in a government closure. In U.S. economic news out Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported earlier that its general business activity index increased to 12.8 in September from 5.0 in August, beating market calls for the index to remain unchanged. Oil futures traded lower in the early part of Tuesday's Asian session as traders backed away from riskier assets on fears of U.S. government shutdown. Crude oil dropped as tensions over Iran eased and a potential U.S. government shutdown clouded the outlook for demand. Exports from Iran have more than halved in recent years to around 1 million barrels per day in 2012 due to tightening sanctions. Supplies concerns have also eased in recent weeks as exports from Libya recovered to above 580,000 barrels per day.
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