Simons Trading Research

Author: simonsg   |   Latest post: Fri, 17 May 2019, 2:55 PM


DBS - Riding on Widening NIM

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  • We keep our BUY call and Target Price of SGD29.80 offering 25.2% upside, plus 5.00% FY19F yield.
  • Management recently reiterated its bullish stance for 2019 – guiding for further NIM widening from FFR hikes, stable loan growth of mid single-digits and wealth management growth potential.
  • We derive our Target Price on assuming long-term ROE of 13.8%, which could be achievable based on management’s guidance of ~13 2019F ROE.
  • Widening NIM is the catalyst to drive DBS’ share price higher.

Expect NIM to Widen Over the Next Few Quarters

  • DBS’ 3Q18 NIM of 1.86% was 1bp wider q-o-q. Towards end-3Q18, exit NIM was 1.86%, and management guided for 4Q18 NIM of 1.86-1.87%, with more widening in 2019 from lagged effects of SIBOR increases (45% of Singapore loans are booked off SIBOR).
  • We forecast 2018-2019 NIMs of 1.86% and 1.92%, premised on the trend of higher interest rates – we forecast end-2019 3-month SIBOR of 2.3%, higher than the current 1.77%, even after factoring in the US Fed chairman’s more dovish 28 Nov speech.

Management Guided for Mid Single-digit 2019 Loan Expansion

  • DBS’ 3Q18 loans were 1% higher q-o-q, with trade loans being a drag as yields are unattractive.
  • Management sees a SGD2.5bn mortgage loan growth as likely for 2018 – the group has a 31% share of the Singapore housing loan market.
  • Management guides for mid single-digit 2019 loans growth, as trade loans are seen to remain weak. We forecast overall 2019 loan growth of 6%.

Wealth Management Strength to Persist

  • DBS’ 9M18 wealth management fees rose 25% y-o-y (to SGD923m), whilst investment banking recorded a 34% y-o-y decline (to SGD99m). DBS is optimistic on future wealth management growth, following the addition of 600 staff in wealth management – an area where productivity should rise over the next 2-3 years.

Our Long-term ROE Assumption Is 13.8%

  • This is on track, as evident from management’s guidance of 13% by 2019 (from 9M18’s 12.4%). Our CoE assumption is 10%, yielding a target P/BV of 1.54x, which is applied to our 2019F BV to derive our SGD29.80 Target Price. We believe the premium over its 5-year historical average P/BV of 1.2x is justified, given the rising NIM trend.
  • During the previous FFR upcycle between mid-2003 and mid-2007, the FFR rose to > 5% from 1%. For that duration, DBS’ P/BV correspondingly rose as high as 1.9x from 1x. The bank now trades at only 1.2x 2019F book, and our target P/BV is set at 1.54x.
  • Maintain BUY, with SGD29.80 Target Price.
  • Downside risks to our forecasts include higher impairment charges and weaker NIM.

Source: RHB Invest Research - 14 Dec 2018

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