Simons Trading Research

Author: simonsg   |   Latest post: Tue, 13 Dec 2022, 10:52 AM


Bumitama Agri - Inexpensive Valuation, Better ESG Score; BUY

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  • Given Bumitama Agri (SGX:P8Z)’s improving ESG disclosures as well as reduced GHG emissions and water intensity, we upgrade its ESG score to 2.6 (from 2.4).
  • Bumitama Agri's valuations remain attractive – Bumitama Agri's share price is trading at 6x FY23F P/E, at the lower end of its peer range of 6-11x.
  • Maintain BUY rating on Bumitama Agri with new target price of S$0.71 from S$0.95, 13% upside with ~11% FY22F yield.

CPO Prices Have Plunged

  • CPO prices have plunged on the back of the unwinding impact of Indonesia’s export ban, as well as fears of recession which pulled down commodity prices, in general. We believe the price decline could have been slightly overdone (-44% in seven weeks) – much more than the declines in soybean, crude oil and wheat prices (which fell by 31%, 17% and 16%).
  • Regulatory risks remain – particularly for players in Indonesia – but we believe supply concerns will continue to plague the sector for the rest of 2022 – in view of the logistics backlog in Indonesia and the labour shortages in Malaysia.
  • That said, if these issues are resolved by end-2022, and if Ukraine is able to export its oilseed products as per the grains deal agreement signed, 2023 should continue to be a better year for supply, and prices should remain under pressure.

ESG Concerns Remain, But May Have Taken a Backseat

  • However, the ESG discounts we previously assigned to Bumitama Agri's valuations are still in place. We have reassessed our ESG scores by relooking at the progress made by the industry, identifying shortcomings and any room for improvement.
  • From our analysis, we highlight that, while better disclosure on ESG-related information has been made over the years, progress in mitigating these issues is rather slow. As a result, we have made some upward revisions to the ESG scores of some planters that have made progress – but highlight that several peers have remained relatively stagnant in their ESG efforts, while others have even reduced disclosures.

We Tone Down CPO Price Assumptions and Lower Target Price for Bumitama Agri

  • We continue to expect stock levels to remain tight for the next 2-3 months, possibly until end-3Q, which would provide support for CPO prices. We trim CPO price assumptions for 2022 to MYR5,100/tonne (from MYR5,300/tonne).
  • For 2023, as fundamentals continue to improve – assuming labour shortages are somewhat resolved and the Ukrainian oilseed output is able to be exported, CPO prices could decrease even more. However, support from a ramp-up in biodiesel mandates and discretionary biodiesel demand coming back would keep CPO prices above MYR3,000/tonne in the medium term.
  • We lower our 2023 estimate to MYR3,900/tonne (from MYR4,300/tonne). Our MYR3,500/tonne assumption for 2024 remains unchanged.
  • Keep BUY recommendation on Bumitama Agri, with a lower target price of S$0.71 from S$0.95 based on a FY23F P/E target of 7x.
  • Our target price for Bumitama Agrialso builds in an 8% ESG discount based on its ESG score of 2.6, which is below the country median of 3.

Source: RHB Invest Research - 11 Aug 2022

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