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Author: kimeng   |   Latest post: Tue, 16 Oct 2018, 12:14 PM

 

China Evergrande Group (3333 HK): Rubbing Some Shine Off Golden Week

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According to the South China Morning Post, home buying was notably subdued in China’s top-tier cities during the eight-day “Golden Week” public holiday, which is a traditionally popular season for home sales.

Data from real estate brokers 5I5J Group and Centaline Property Agency indicate that new home sales fell as much as 78% and 64% in Shanghai and Beijing, respectively, during the holidays compared with a year ago.

Given the 19th Communist Party Congress starting October 18, it is highly likely that potential buyers are adopting a wait-andsee approach. Further, the slew of cooling measures introduced by the local authorities, ranging from heightened mortgage down payments to resale restrictions, appears to be taking effect.

While Evergrande’s latest operating statistics for Sep’17 indicate that contracted sales remains healthy till date, a prolonged period of market softness will be a cause for concern.

We maintain our HOLD rating and our fair value estimate of HK$28.64, based on a target forward P/E of 8.2x.

Source: OCBC Research - 13 Oct 2017

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