• The past six sessions (10-17 March) have seen the STI trade below 3,200, with a 105-point range for the STI in rangebound choppy trading conditions. The six sessions saw the Singapore stock market book net institutional outflows of S$133 million and net retail inflows of S$334 million.
   
• While the KBW Nasdaq Global Bank Index declined 11% over the six sessions, announcements by the US Fed Reserve and Swiss National Bank to shore up financial stability have provided major market cues. On Sunday, the UBS takeover of Credit Suisse was made possible with the support of the Swiss federal government, the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority, and the Swiss National Bank.
   
• Singapore stocks that booked the highest net retail inflows over the six sessions included DBS, UOB, OCBC, YZJ Shipbuilding, City Dev, Keppel Corp, Jardine C&C, Suntec REIT, Venture and Jardine Matheson, while averaging 3% declines. Wilmar Intl, Sembcorp Ind and Genting Sing booked the most net institutional inflow over the six sessions, while averaging 5% gains.
   
• During the six sessions, the Nikko AM Singapore STI ETF, SPDR® GOLD SHARES, NikkoAM-StraitsTrading Asia ex Japan REIT, NikkoAM-StraitsTrading MSCI China Electric Vehicles And Future Mobility ETF, and ABF Singapore Bond Index Fund Portfolio led ETF inflows, with the SPDR® GOLD SHARES seeing a significant increase in trading turnover.

The past six sessions have seen the STI break below 3,200, returning to Nov 2022 levels. With a trading range of 3,199.94 to 3,094.28, institutions have been net sellers over the six sessions with S$133 million of net outflow. During the six sessions through to 17 March, the KBW Nasdaq Global Bank Index declined 11%, while the STI declined 0.7%, with the trio of DBS Group Holdings, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation and United Overseas Bank averaging a 2.6% decline.

Recent Central Bank Announcements regarding Financial Stability

Broad Central Bank charters to facilitate price stability has seen the US Fed Reserve lift its Fed Funds Rate by 450bps since March 2022, while the European Central Bank (ECB) has increased its three policy rates by 300 bps since July 2022. Recent market attention on the impact of the tightening financial conditions on mid-tier banks has seen the KBW Nasdaq Global Bank Index decline 11% over the six sessions through to 17 March At the same time, the charter of Central Banks extends to financial stability, which has seen multiple key announcements that have provided market cues since 9 March. These include:

• The US Fed Reserve announcing a new Bank Term Funding Program prior to the Monday 13 March Asia open, to bolster the capacity of the banking system, to safeguard deposits, and ensure ongoing provision of money and credit to the US economy.
   
• Close to 24 hours later, the Federal Reserve announced that its Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr is leading a review of the supervision and regulation of SVB, considering its failure.
   
• On 15 March, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (SFMSA) maintained the problems of certain banks in the US did not pose a direct risk of contagion for the Swiss financial markets, with the SNB affirming strict capital and liquidity requirements applicable to Swiss financial institutions ensure their stability. The SNB and SFMSA also maintained that Credit Suisse (CS) met the capital and liquidity requirements imposed on systemically important banks and if necessary, the SNB would provide CS with liquidity.
   
• On 19 March UBS announced the takeover of Credit Suisse, with the takeover made possible with the support of the Swiss federal government, SFMSA and the SNB. The US Sec of Treasury and US Federal Reserve Chair noted they welcome the announcements by the Swiss authorities to support financial stability, while reiterating the capital and liquidity positions of the US banking system are strong, and the US financial system is resilient.
   
• Also on 19 March, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the ECB, the US Federal Reserve, and the SNB announced a coordinated action to enhance the provision of liquidity via the standing US dollar liquidity swap line arrangements.

This has seen expectations for the 22 March FOMC (decision due 0200 23 March SGT) morph from ~30%/70% for a 25bps hike/50bps hike back on 8 March, to ~40%/60% expectations for a pause/25 bps hike.  

Recent Retail Flows in Singapore

Over the past six sessions, retail have been net buyers of Singapore stocks, with net retail inflows totaling S$334 million. This brought total net retail inflows for the first 11 weeks of 2023 to S$932 million. The 50 stocks that booked the most net retail inflows over the six sessions are tabled below. On a Sector basis, Financial Services, Industrials and Real Estate booked the highest net retail inflows over the six sessions. Among the 100 most traded stocks over the past 11 weeks, the 10 stocks that booked the highest net retail inflows over the six sessions, proportionate to their stock market capitalisation, included Geo Energy Resources, Digital Core REIT, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings), Dyna-Mac Holdings, Halcyon Agri Corporation, Prime US REIT, The Place Holdings, Suntec REIT, City Developments and Jiutian Chemical.  

Source: SGX, Refinitiv, Bloomberg (Data as of 17 March 2023)

Recent Institutional Flows in Singapore

Over the past six sessions, institutions have been net sellers of Singapore stocks, with net institutional outflows totaling S$133 million. This brought total net institutional outflow for the first 11 weeks of 2023 to S$1.24 billion. The majority of the 50 stocks that saw the most net institutional outflow over the six sessions were among the 50 stocks that booked the most net retail inflow over the six sessions.  

The 50 stocks that booked the most net institutional inflows over the six sessions are tabled below. Asia’s leading agribusiness group, Wilmar International led the net institutional inflows over the six sessions.

Source: SGX, Refinitiv, Bloomberg (Data as of 17 March 2023)