Highlights

SGX Market Updates

Author: SGX   |   Latest post: Mon, 15 Aug 2022, 5:06 PM

 

Inflation & Slower Growth Outlook Fuels Further Selling in Global Stocks

Author:   |    Publish date:


  • For the 2Q22 to date, the STI has generated an 8% decline in total return, with the FTSE Developed Index declining 16%. For the quarter, the broader Singapore stock market has seen S$1.05 billion of net institutional outflow, reducing the 2022 YTD net institutional inflow to S$74 million, with the STI 2022 YTD total return at 1%.
     
  • As global inflation gauges have continued to press longer term record levels since 31 March, expectations for the end of 2022 US Fed Funds Rate have increased from 225-250 bps to 350-375 bps. The impact of higher rates has also weighed global growth outlooks, with the World Bank tapering its 2022 global growth estimate to 2.9% (from 4.1%).  
     
  • The technology sector has continued to weigh global stocks since 31 March, with hospitality & real estate also lagging, while the defensive outperformance of global banks seen in 1Q22 narrowed considerably. In Singapore, banks, technology and REITs have now booked the most net institutional outflows across the sectors in the 2022 YTD.
     
  • The 20 stocks among the most actively traded Singapore stocks that booked the highest net institutional inflows in the 2022 YTD proportionate to their current market capitalisation, included five REITs and five industrial stocks, with the remaining 10 stocks representing eight sectors. These 20 stocks averaged a 22% total return in the 2022 YTD.   

     

For the 2Q22 through to 17 June, the STI has declined 9.1%, with the dividend distributions of May reducing the decline to 7.6% in total return terms. This is half the declines of the FTSE Developed Index, which has generated a 15.8% decline in total return over the same 11 weeks.

Inflation & Slower Growth Outlook Fuels Further Selling in Global Stocks

The technology sector has continued to be the weakest of the global stock sectors in the 2Q22, as global inflation gauges have continued to revisit longer term record levels which has seen the majority of expectations for the end of 2022 US Fed Funds Rate (based on CME FedWatch) increase from 225-250 bps to 350-375 bps. The impact of the inflation and higher rates has also weighed global growth outlooks, with the World Bank this month reducing its 2022 global growth estimate to 2.9%, superseding a more optimistic outlook or 4.1% made in January.  

 

Shifting of Fund Flows in 2022 YTD

 

  • Like 1Q22, the STI composition benefitted from the comparative performances of banks over technology, with global technology stocks declining some 8% more than global bank stocks since 31 March. For 1Q22, the broader Singapore stock market attracted S$1.12 billion of net institutional inflows, and since 1Q22, has seen S$1.05 billion of net institutional outflows, resulting in 2022 year-to-date net institutional inflows of S$74 million, with the STI posting a marginal year-to-date total return of 1.2%.
     
  • Approximately half of the stocks traded on Singapore Exchange have booked net institutional inflows in the year-to-date, while half have booked net outflows. For passive investors however, there has been some rotation to the STI for the first 13 sessions of June with the two ETFs that track the STI on track to record their first monthly inflows for 2022, after five consecutive months of net outflows that exceeded S$100 million from January through to the end of May 2022.

Focusing on the 100 most traded stocks by turnover this year, the 20 stocks that have booked the highest net institutional inflows, not on absolute basis, but proportionate to their current market capitalisation, have averaged 22% total returns in the year-to-date.  As many as 19 of the stocks generated positive total returns, while one stock, Singapore Post, remained unchanged.

The 20 stocks have also booked a total of S$1.94 billion of net institutional inflows in the year-to-date, led by Singapore Telecommunications. The 20 stocks are tabled below.  

 

Actively Traded Singapore Stocks with Highest YTD Net Insti Flows proportionate to Mkt Cap

Code

Mkt Cap S$M

Insti YTD Net Flow (S$M)

Net Flow as % of Cap

YTD Total Return %

QTD Total Return %

Sector

Jiutian Chemical

C8R

195

23

12.0%

40

22

Materials & Resources

Riverstone

AP4

971

36

3.7%

7

-27

Healthcare

CityDev

C09

7,382

243

3.3%

24

7

Real Estate (excl. REITs)

Sembcorp Ind

U96

4,892

142

2.9%

38

4

Utilities

Keppel Corp

BN4

11,662

193

1.7%

32

5

Industrials

Samudera Shipping

S56

407

6

1.5%

55

1

Industrials

Hong Fok

H30

775

11

1.4%

24

9

Real Estate (excl. REITs)

Singtel

Z74

40,791

524

1.3%

6

-6

Telecommunications

Sembcorp Marine

S51

3,421

42

1.2%

33

11

Industrials

Ascott Trust

HMN

3,780

44

1.2%

14

2

REITs

SGX

S68

10,327

119

1.1%

4

-4

Financial Services

Sheng Siong

OV8

2,300

25

1.1%

7

3

Consumer Non-Cyclicals

Bumitama Agri

P8Z

1,179

13

1.1%

31

-7

Consumer Non-Cyclicals

Suntec REIT

T82U

4,851

53

1.1%

15

-2

REITs

CapLand IntCom Trust

C38U

14,320

154

1.1%

6

-4

REITs

Jardine C&C

C07

11,928

123

1.0%

51

24

Consumer Cyclicals

Frasers H Trust

ACV

1,339

13

1.0%

51

31

REITs

Keppel REIT

K71U

4,206

41

1.0%

3

-7

REITs

ST Engineering

S63

12,218

118

1.0%

8

-2

Industrials

SingPost

S08

1,462

12

0.8%

0

0

Industrials

Average

 

 

 

 

22

3

 

Total

 

138,406

1,935

 

 

 

 

Source: SGX, Bloomberg, Refinitiv (Data as of 17 June 2022)

 

As shown in the table above, Jiutian Chemical Group has booked S$23 million of net institutional inflow in the year-to-date which represents 12.0% of the stock’s current market capitalisation of S$195 million. Representing the Materials & Resources sector, Catalist-listed and Henan-based company manufactures and produces dimethylformamide (“DMF”), methylamine, sodium hydrosulfate and dimethylacetamide. For its 1Q22, Jiutian Chemical Group reported net profit of RMB 201 million, a 123% increase over the same period last year, notwithstanding 15 days of lower production volume in January 2022 due to Covid related restriction affecting logistics. This followed on from its 2021 net profit growing 87% from 2020, on increased demand for its products by downstream users as well as surge in average selling prices of DMF and Methylamine. Since the end of 2019, Jiutian Chemical Group’s market capitalisation has grown sixfold from just over S$30 million to over S$190 million.

Share this

  Be the first to like this.
 


APPS
I3 Messenger
Individual or Group chat with anyone on I3investor
 
 

185  181  222  610 

ActiveGainersLosers
Top 10 Active Counters
 NameLastChange 
 Sembcorp Marine 0.11+0.001 
 Parkson Retail 0.081+0.011 
 Hatten Land 0.034+0.003 
 Acesian Partners 0.058+0.001 
 HSI 21000MBeC.. 0.053-0.01 
 YZJ Fin Hldg 0.36-0.005 
 HSI 19200MBeP.. 0.105+0.01 
 HSI 21800MBeC.. 0.031-0.006 
 HSI 18400MBeP.. 0.073+0.006 
 CMC Infocomm 0.135+0.008 
PARTNERS & BROKERS