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Author: calvintaneng   |   Latest post: Mon, 8 Aug 2022, 11:47 AM

 

REPOSTING AFTER ONE YEAR TO SEE THEIR DIVERGENCE : IJMPLANT (RM1.86) VERSUS HARTA (RM9.98) Calvin Tan

Author:   |    Publish date:


Dear Investors of i3 Forum (KLSE) Malaysia

More than one year has passed & now things are getting clearer

See the full Post before we give further comments

 

IJMPLANT (2216) Rm1.86 Versus HARTALEGA GLOVE (5186) Rm9.98 COMPARE & CONTRAST THEIR PROSPECTS, Calvin Tan Research

Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
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calvintaneng
0 1,668
Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

" data-bs-html="true" data-bs-original-title="" data-bs-toggle="popover" data-bs-trigger="focus" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(13, 110, 253);" tabindex="0" title="">calvintaneng

Publish date: Wed, 05 May 2021, 02:19 PM

Dear Friends/Investors of i3 Forum, 

 

HARTALEGA HAS JUST REPORTED ANOTHER QUARTER OF GOOD RESULT

AND HARTA PRICE IS RM9.80 AMONG THE HOTTEST GLOVE STOCKS

IJMPLANT IS QUITE NEGLECTED AND UNLOVED, UNWANTED & OVERLOOKED

 

Hence IjmPlant attracts our attention

 

See

 

TOP 25 QUOTES BY JOHN TEMPLETON (of 131) | A-Z Quotes

 

PRECISELY!

90% OF THE MARKET IS NOW FULLY AWARE & BULLISH ON HARTALEGA. SO IT IS GOING TO END ON EUPHORIA  AS UPSIDE IS LIMITED

90% OF THE PEOPLE ARE BEARISH ON IJMPLANT & PALM OIL AS A WHOLE. SO THERE IS STILL LOTS OF ROOM FOR UPSIDE

 

Now let's look at 4 Qtr Forward P/E of Hartalega

 

See

 

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
31 Mar 2021

 
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD
31 Mar 2021
31 Mar 2020
31 Mar 2021
31 Mar 2020
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
1 Revenue
2,299,858
778,238
6,695,862
2,924,313
2 Profit/(loss) before tax
1,511,790
136,752
3,813,443
555,430
3 Profit/(loss) for the period
1,125,074
114,276
2,903,659
434,397
4 Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
1,119,093
114,415
2,885,410
433,618
5 Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
32.75
3.40
84.43
12.88
6 Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)
17.70
2.05
33.30
7.55
   
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7 Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
1.4500
0.7500
 

 

This Qtr result 32.75 sen

Forward 4 qtr P/E

32.75 x 4 = Rm1.31

At share price of Rm9.98

Its P/E = Rm9.98 divides by Rm1.31

= 7.61

It will take 7.61 years to double your money

 

Now look at IJM PLANTATION

'

 

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
31 Dec 2020

 
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD
31 Dec 2020
31 Dec 2019
31 Dec 2020
31 Dec 2019
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
1 Revenue
271,957
237,812
689,312
543,740
2 Profit/(loss) before tax
98,850
33,303
211,718
22,966
3 Profit/(loss) for the period
70,180
21,446
154,903
13,294
4 Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
66,590
20,063
147,666
12,964
5 Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
7.56
2.28
16.67
1.47
6 Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
   
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7 Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
1.5700
1.3500

 

 

7.56 sen

Forward 4 x P/E

7.56 x 4 = 30.24 sen

 

Price Rm1.86 so

P/E = Rm1.86 divides by 30.24

6.15 (It will take 6.15   years to double your money)

THIS DEMONSTRATES NEGLECTED IJM PLANT HAS BETTER POTENTIAL THAN POPULAR HARTALEGA NOW.

 

HARTA BEING SO POPULAR HAS ATTRACTED MANY NEW GLOVE WANNABEES FROM MALAYSIA, THAILAND AND AS FAR AS CHINA

IT ONLY TAKE 6 MONTHS TO START A NEW GLOVE FACTORY

BUT IT TAKES 3 YEARS TO PLANT AND HARVEST PALM FRUIT

SO HARTA AFTER ONE YEAR IS NOW FACING COMPETITION (AND GETTING INTO PRICE WAR

 

See

Hartalega Gloveon Paloma Nitrile Powder Free Examination Gloves (1 Box)

Above is taken from Lazada Sg today & harta is selling at a 13% discount

Others like TopGlove (15% discount), Careplus (17% discount) Rubberex (33% discount) Supermax (40% discount)

That is not counting Gloves from China, Australia & Thailand all fighting over buyers now in both Lazada Sg & Alibaba China

 

While Palm Oil has surprise of scarcity & price rise

See

 

 

CPO HAS GONE UP FROM LOW OF RM2,000 TO RM4,000 PER TON (UP 100%)

And Singapore Wilmar just reported a jump of 100% profit

 

WILMAR International's net profit doubled to US$450.2 million in Q1 2021 from US$224.1 million in the previous year, setting a record for the agribusiness group's first-quarter results since its listing.

Wilmar said all of its core businesses put in a strong performance in the quarter. The results were boosted by a reversal of mark-to-market losses on hedging derivatives recorded in Q4 2020.

Since IjmPlant has Mills which supply CPO to Wilmar their business performance should mirror each other

Both IjmPlant & Wilmar got plantations in Sabah, Kalimantan & Sumatra together

 

AND WITH BORDERS' CLOSED IN COVID 19 LOCK DOWN IJM PLANTATION IN INDONESIA HAS PLENTY OF FFB HARVESTERS

 

AND LIKE HARTA IJM PLANT VALUE ADD TO ITS OPERATION BY SETTING UP 4 PALM OIL MILLS IN SABAH & ONE IN KALIMANTAN

IT ALSO BUY FFB (FRESH FRUIT BUNCHES FROM OTHERS TO PROCESS THEM INTO CPO

See this https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3145642

 

SO IJMPLANT HAS THESE SALIENT FACTORS

 

IT HAS A LOWER P/E THAN HARTA

IT IS MOVING UP FROM CYCLICAL LOW TO CYCLICAL HIGH WHILE HARTA NOW AT PEAK AND FURTHER UPSIDE IS LIMITED

ITS PALM OIL ESTATES HAVE NO LABOUR CONSTRAINT

WITH CPO OVER RM4,000 PER TON IJM PLANT PROFITS WILL EXPLODE UPWARD IN COMING MONTHS

 

SEE FURTHER

 

 

THIS YEAR INSIDER/DIRECTOR STARTS BUYING IJMPLANT (LOOKS LIKE LAST YEAR MAY 2020 WHEN SUPERMAX INSIDERS BUYING??) SOMETHING GOOD COMING AHEAD?

 

IJMPLANT IS NOW RM1.86

 

TARGET PRICE IS RM4.00 (YEAR HIGH OF 2014 CYCLICAL PEAK)

 

DR. NEOH OF DYNAQUEST GAVE IJM PLANT A 4.5 * RATING

 

BEST REGARDS

 

Calvin Tan Research

 

Please do not buy or sell Until AFTER doing your own due study and diligence. In doubt please consult your Remisier or Fund Manager

CALVIN ADDITIONAL COMMENTS DATED 5TH JULY 2022

 

Above Article was Posted on 5th May 2022

 

Since then IjmPlant was taken private by KLK at Rm3.10 for a nice 66% Gain while Current time Harta is Rm2.73

From Rm9.98 - Rm2.73

= Rm7.25 (Harta has lost 72.6% of its capital

 

We saw Gloves emanating from China fierce Glut & Price war which have devastated profits to mounting losses

 

See Harta result after one year below

 

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
31 Mar 2022

 
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD
31 Mar 2022
31 Mar 2021
31 Mar 2022
31 Mar 2021
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
1 Revenue
968,693
2,307,481
7,888,286
6,703,485
2 Profit/(loss) before tax
218,376
1,511,730
4,637,213
3,813,383
3 Profit/(loss) for the period
-189,737
1,125,162
3,242,618
2,903,747
4 Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
-197,904
1,119,196
3,234,701
2,885,513
5 Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
-5.79
32.75
94.64
84.43
6 Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)
3.50
17.70
73.25
33.30
   
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7 Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
1.5000
1.4500
 

From the above table of contents

Harta was 32.75 sen in profit & now it shows a loss of -5.79 sen

How things have changed

And losses still continue unless Harta stops in 16 Lines Expansion north of Kedah, Thai Border with Rm7 Billions commitment to build new glove lines

 

Leaving gloves let us see another Stock with Potential just like IJMPLANT

TSH RESOURCES

Why TSH Resources?

Answer:

TSH RESOURCES Has All the Characteristics of IJMPLANT

Like IJMPLANT TSH Has Palm oil estates in Sabah, Kalimantan & Sumatra

And they both got 6 Palm oil Mills both in Sabah & Indonesia

Both IJMPLANT Got Estates in Kutai/Nusantara & Bulugan Regency

Both Ijm Plant & TSH share prices crossed Rm4.00 in year 2008 when CPO was Rm3500 - Rm4000 range

TSH Gave One free bonus for Two so its readjusted price should be Rm2.70

If KLK Can Value IjmPlant at Rm3.10 for privatisation we think TSH is worth anywhere from Rm2.00 to Rm2.20 if taken private

 

See TSH RESOURCES Latest Results

 

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
31 Mar 2022

 
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD
31 Mar 2022
31 Mar 2021
31 Mar 2022
31 Mar 2021
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
1 Revenue
337,349
244,081
337,349
244,081
2 Profit/(loss) before tax
115,849
38,978
115,849
38,978
3 Profit/(loss) for the period
106,700
26,448
106,700
26,448
4 Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
101,864
15,565
101,864
15,565
5 Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
6.99
1.51
6.99
1.51
6 Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
   
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7 Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
1.2630
1.1892
 

 

ONE YEAR HAS PASSED AND TSH LATEST RESULTS

PROFIT JUMPED FROM 1.51 SEN TO 6.99 SEN (UP 362%)

 

at 6.99 annualised 

6.99 x 4 = 27.96

 

at rm1.06

 

the p/e is only 3.79

 

It has sold Two Estates plus a Mill in Sabah for Rm248 Millions with 7.56 sen profit

Profit of 6.99 sen last qtr only reported partial profit from 7.56 sen received

Since not on time for May the residual carryover profit for Aug 2022 results still got 3.99 sen to be included with its normal operations

 

On June 29th 2022 TSH has received approval for Sale of Bulugan Regency Estates for Rm731.09 Millions of which 31 sen is profit

This will most probably be reported by May 2023 resluts

Right now in Kutai/Nusantara there is a land boom due to Indonesia shifting its New Admin Capital from Jakarta to NUSANTARA

Tsh has 4 plots of lands with total Acreage of 94,700 Acres

If we just value them at Rm1.00 psf then it will be worth more than Rm4 Billions

There is other Value found in TSH more than Ijmplant (the total pages of ijmplant Annual Report is only 151 pages while TSH Annual Reports run into 224 Pages.

Inside TSH Resources other assets are

It is Top 2nd holder of INNOPlant with 105 Million Shares or 21.95%

TSH Has Taken EKOWOOD Private at 40 sen in year 2017 when TSH was Rm1.96

It has 300,000 Acres of Forest Concession Lands from Sabah Govt

It has 50/50 JV Refinery with Wilmar in Sabah

It has Cocoa Manufacturing as well as BioMass & BioElectricity

 

 

 

Tsh now rm1.06

 

Our one year target price is rm2.70 by july 2023

See when it will arrive there

 

Best Regards

 

Calvin Tan

 

Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence or consult your remisier/fund manager

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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